Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Suns-Spurs, Luka Doncic, Paolo Banchero)

Thursday is one of the biggest days in the basketball calendar, as the opening day of March Madness tips off.

The SI Betting team has you covered with picks for every game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but yours truly is focused on the professional side of basketball on Thursday.

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There’s a loaded NBA slate as well, featuring some great matchups such as:

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs

So, I’ve decided to bet on all of them.

There are two player props and one side that I’m eyeing on Thursday, including a prop pick for Lakers star Luka Doncic.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 216-168 (+14.57 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1507-1405-27 (+47.72 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs -9.5 (-118) vs. Phoenix Suns
Luka Doncic 4+ 3-Pointers Made (-170)
Paolo Banchero OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-119)

San Antonio Spurs -9.5 (-118) vs. Phoenix Suns

The San Antonio Spurs are 17-13-1 against the spread when favored at home in the 2025-26 season, posting an average scoring margin of +8.1 points per game in those matchups.

Now, San Antonio is looking to even the season series with the Suns after losing the first two matchups. Phoenix is down two key players in Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks on Thursday, and it’s fallen to 15-21 against teams that are .500 or better this season.

San Antonio has been dominant at home, going 26-7, and it’s been the best team in the NBA since the All-Star break.

Over their last 15 games, the Spurs have the best net rating in the NBA (+12.3) while winning 13 of those matchups. I think they’re a great bet at home, especially since Dylan Harper and Luke Kornet are off the injury report and expected to play in this matchup.

Luka Doncic 4+ 3-Pointers Made (-170)

Luka Doncic is shooting 41.6 percent from beyond the arc since the All-Star break, and he’s been even better in the month of March.

Doncic is shooting 39.4 percent from 3 in March, but the most impressive part is that he’s taking 12.7 3-pointers per game during that stretch. That gives Doncic a great floor when it comes to this prop, as he’s made four or more shots from deep in seven games in a row.

Now, Doncic takes on a Miami Heat team that is 21st in the league in opponent 3s made per game and first in pace. So, the Lakers should get a ton of possessions to rack up points in this matchup.

There’s no way I’m fading Doncic – who is averaging 33.0 points per game – given his recent hot stretch.

Paolo Banchero OVER 13.5 Rebounds and Assists (-119)

Since the All-Star break, Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero is averaging 25.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game, turning around what was a frustrating first half of the season.

Banchero has picked up at least 14 rebounds and assists in 10 of his 15 games since the break, and he may be undervalued against a Hornets team that he nearly recorded a triple-double against in their first meeting this season.

With Anthony Black and Franz Wagner still out of the lineup for Orlando, Banchero should remain in a high-usage role on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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