NBA Finals Odds Movement: Rockets, Nuggets Rising, Spurs, Lakers Falling During Free Agency

Breaking down the biggest odds movement in the NBA Finals market after the first two days of free agency.

Peter Dewey | Jul 2, 2025

There has been a ton of movement in the NBA Finals odds, including for contenders like Denver and Houston. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

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It’s been a wild week of offseason moves in the NBA, and oddsmakers have made some serious adjustments to the NBA Finals odds for the 2025-26 season after the opening days of free agency.

Some teams are on the rise after making shrewd moves – like the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets – while others have seen their odds tank – like the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers – for essentially standing pat.

Those aren’t the only teams that have seen substantial moves to their odds, though. The Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks and others have also made moves that have shifted where Vegas views them ahead of the 2025-26 season.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the biggest odds movement so far in free agency at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the likely reasoning behind the moves.

Houston Rockets

Movement: +750 to +700

What an offseason it's been for the Rockets.

Not only did the Rockets move to second in the odds to win the title after acquiring superstar Kevin Durant, but they made a huge move at the start of free agency as well, signing 3-and-D wing Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year deal, poaching him from the Lakers.

Houston has jumped to +700 to win the title as a result, sitting behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Rockets also improved their center depth, adding veteran Clint Capela to the roster in free agency. This young Rockets team appears to be poised to compete for a title after earning the No. 2 seed in the West in the 2024-25 season.

Denver Nuggets

Movement: +1500 to +1100

Arguably the most impressive offseason of any team in the Western Conference so far has come from the Denver Nuggets, and they kicked it off by trading away Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, a cost-cutting move that has allowed them to further build out the roster.

Here’s what Denver has done so far since the start of free agency:

Traded Michael Porter Jr., 2032 FRP for Cameron Johnson
Signed Bruce Brown
Signed Tim Hardaway Jr.
Traded Dario Saric for Jonas Valanciunas

After not having enough depth in the 2024-25 season, Denver added four quality veteran rotation players while giving away just one (MPJ) in the process. As a result, Denver has gone from +1500 to +1100 to win the title, sitting behind only the Thunder, Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks.

Los Angeles Lakers

Movement: +1300 to +1600

The Los Angeles Lakers have mainly stayed pat this offseason, and it has hurt their odds to win the title. After the Lakers saw a small boost because LeBron James opted into his contract, speculation that the four-time champion could be traded has not helped L.A.’s case.

In addition, the Lakers lost Finney-Smith in free agency and replaced him with Jake LaRavia, something oddsmakers are viewing as a downgrade at the position. Oh, and the Lakers missed out on Capela, Brook Lopez and other key centers in the free-agent market. Not good.

Los Angeles is now +1600 to win the title, and it could fall further if it strikes out on a center like Deandre Ayton in free agency.

San Antonio Spurs

Movement: +2500 to +5000

The San Antonio Spurs’ big offseason move so far was to add center Luke Kornet on a four-year deal, but their odds have fallen in a big way (from +2500 to +5000) in free agency.

The main reason for that is likely the Milwaukee Bucks’ decision to sign Myles Turner in an attempt to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee. The Spurs are as well-positioned as anyone to land the two-time MVP in a trade, but it seems like that won’t happen this offseason.

That has put a damper on San Antonio’s outlook in the futures market.

Milwaukee Bucks

Movement: +8000 to +4000

Speaking of the Bucks, Milwaukee made a shocking move on Tuesday, signing Turner away from the Indiana Pacers while waiving and stretching Damian Lillard's contract.

The move spiked the team’s odds to win the title, moving all the way up to +4000 at several sportsbooks.

While the Bucks paid a major price to waive Lillard – they’ll owe him over $22 million for each of the next five seasons – they are doing their best to build around Giannis.

The Bucks also brought back Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince while signing Gary Harris to improve the roster.

Atlanta Hawks

Movement: +12000 to +5500

There may not be a team having a better offseason than the Atlanta Hawks, and their sign-and-trade for Nickeil Alexander-Walker was the icing on the cake that shifted the team’s title odds.

So far this offseason, Atlanta has:

Traded for Kristaps Porzingis
Drafted Asa Newell
Signed Luke Kennard
Executed a sign-and-trade for Alexander-Walker

That has built a defensive-minded roster around Trae Young, and the Hawks should be in the mix for a top spot in the East next season.

Indiana Pacers

Movement: +8000 to +9000

This movement is pretty obvious, as losing Turner is a big blow to a Pacers team that already won’t have Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) in the 2025-26 season. The Pacers avoided going into the tax by letting Turner walk, a tough decision to make after reaching Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2025.

Boston Celtics

Movement: +2000 to +4000

Boston has lost Kornet, Jrue Holiday and Porzingis this offseason, and it appears to be on the verge of losing Al Horford as well.

Oddsmakers have reacted by shifting Boston down the odds board to win the title, and it’s possible the team could fall further with Jayson Tatum (Achilles) out.

The C’s biggest moves so far were acquiring Anfernee Simons in the Holiday trade and signing Luka Garza and Josh Minnott in free agency.