NBA Finals Odds: Power Ranking Every Team Entering Play-In Tournament (OKC, Spurs, Denver Above the Rest)

Postseason basketball is back!

The grueling 82-game regular season in the NBA wrapped up on Sunday, and now 20 teams remain (eight in the play-in tournament field) in the mix to win the NBA Finals this season, including the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who finished with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the third straight season.

When it comes to betting on the NBA Finals, there is one trend that I always reference because it has been a predictor of the title winner in nearly 30 straight seasons.

The NBA champion since the 1996-97 season has come out of the top eight teams in the league in net rating during the regular season, meaning Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Boston, Denver, Detroit, New York, Houston or Charlotte would need to win it all to keep this trend intact this season.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

The eight teams for the 2025-26 season:

1. OKC
2. Pistons
3. Spurs
4. Celtics
5. Knicks
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Hornets
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 13, 2026

With the play-in tournament set to begin on Tuesday night, I’ve decided to rank each of the team’s based on their odds to win the title.

NBA Finals Odds for Every Team Ahead of Play-In Tournament

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder: +110
San Antonio Spurs: +500
Boston Celtics: +550
Denver Nuggets: +950
Cleveland Cavaliers: +1600
New York Knicks: +1800
Detroit Pistons: +2200
Houston Rockets: +6000
Minnesota Timberwolves: +9000
Atlanta Hawks: +13000
Philadelphia 76ers: +17000
Charlotte Hornets: +17000
Los Angeles Lakers: +25000
Toronto Raptors: +25000
Orlando Magic: +35000
Phoenix Suns: +60000
Los Angeles Clippers: +70000
Miami Heat: +70000
Golden State Warriors: +80000
Portland Trail Blazers: +200000

There is a clear drop off in the odds after Detroit, and Minnesota and Houston are the only two teams after the Pistons with shorter than +13000 odds to win the NBA Finals.

I’ve decided to power rank all of these teams based on their latest Finals odds, their path in the playoffs and where they stacked up during the regular season.

The True Title Contenders

Oklahoma City Thunder (+110)

Oklahoma City has the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA, and the path to the Western Conference Finals could be pretty easy with the Los Angeles Lakers banged up and the Houston Rockets expected to advance to the second round as the No. 5 seed.

OKC has been favored to win the title all season long, and it finally was able to get healthy towards the end of the regular season. Bettors should prepare for the Thunder to at least reach the Western Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Denver Nuggets (+950)

I have Denver as my No. 2 team – even though it’s fourth in the odds – because we’ve seen Nikola Jokic and this Nuggets core win a title before.

Denver has a tough road to the Finals with Minnesota in round one and San Antonio looming in round two, but the Nuggets also won 12 games in a row to earn the No. 3 seed in the West, including two wins over the Spurs.

Jokic is still the best player in the world – in my opinion – and I like this price for the Nuggets since they did take OKC to seven games in the 2024-25 season.

Boston Celtics (+550)

Jayson Tatum is back, and the Boston Celtics have skyrocketed to the favorite in the Eastern Conference as a result. The C’s – like Denver – have won a title before with Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the way, and they finished the regular season in the top five in the NBA in offensive, defensive and net rating.

San Antonio Spurs (+500)

Can Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs really win a title?

A 62-win regular season and a 4-1 mark against OKC suggests that the Spurs are as good as anyone, but there is a lack of playoff experience on the roster. Historically, inexperienced teams almost never reach the NBA Finals, never mind win them.

That being said, Wemby is the best defensive player in the league, and the Spurs should roll in the first round against a play-in opponent. Oddsmakers have them set with the second-best odds to win it all this season.

The Second-Tier Title Contenders

New York Knicks (+1800)

After making the Eastern Conference Finals last season, the Knicks are back in the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference and finished the regular season fifth in the league in net rating.

New York could win the title, but it didn’t exactly fare well against some of the best teams in the league (0-5 against Detroit and OKC) despite winning three of four games against Boston. The Knicks have an identity with Jalen Brunson leading a strong starting five, but the Knicks’ defense needs to hold up in the playoffs if it wants to make a run to the Finals.

Detroit Pistons (+2200)

Cade Cunningham’s return is huge for a Detroit team that is No. 2 in net rating and defensive rating this season, sitting in the top spot in the East.

I love the draw for the Pistons, especially if they can avoid Charlotte in the play-in tournament. Detroit would face the winner of the Toronto-Cleveland series in the second round, and the Cavs have plenty of playoff flaws, failing to ever make it out of the second in the Donovan Mitchell era.

I think the Pistons are a little undervalued at +2200 since they have home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+1600)

The Cavs fall outside the top eight in net rating in the regular season, and their midseason trade for James Harden has worked offensively but not as much on defense. Cleveland was 18th in the league in defensive rating after the All-Star break, and this core has not made a run past the second round of the playoffs.

I simply don’t trust the Cavs at this number, especially since they finished ninth in net rating despite being projected to win the East before the season started.

Houston Rockets (+6000)

Houston’s lack of 3-point shooting and struggles in clutch-time offense (20th in offensive rating), make it a risky bet to win the NBA Finals with a second-round matchup with OKC looming.

However, the Rockets are heavily favored to get past a banged-up Lakers team in the first round, and they did post the sixth-best net rating in the NBA during the regular season. If Kevin Durant can carry this offense in the playoffs, Houston has the defenders to match up with nearly every team in the league.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+9000)

I don’t want to totally discount the Timberwolves since they’ve made back-to-back Western Conference Finals, but they are by far the biggest long shot in this group.

Minnesota limped to the finish this season, ranking 18th in net rating after the All-Star break, and Anthony Edwards (knee) has been banged up. The Wolves knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs in 2024, but their path to the Finals could be going through Denver, San Antonio and OKC. That’s highly unlikely, even for a team with as much playoff success as the Wolves have had the last few years.

Could Win a Series

Los Angeles Lakers (+25000)

Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are both injured, but the Lakers have a shot to upset a Houston team that has struggled with crunch-time offense all season.

The Rockets are heavily favored (-750) in their first-round series, so it makes sense why the Lakers are so far down in this market. Even if L.A. did advance, it has shown it can’t really compete with Oklahoma City in the 2025-26 season.

Atlanta Hawks (+13000)

The Hawks are the shortest underdog in the first round of the NBA playoffs, and their second-half surge makes them a tough opponent for the New York Knicks.

Atlanta was fourth in the NBA in net rating and won 20 of 26 games after the All-Star break. I wouldn’t be on the Hawks to win the title, but they certainly could win a series.

Charlotte Hornets (+17000)

The No. 8 team in the league in net rating, Charlotte had the second-best net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break, going 18-9 in 27 games.

Charlotte has a tough path to even make the playoffs since it’s just the No. 9 seed, but it’ll be a trendy upset pick if it does win two games in a row to face Detroit in the first round.

First-Round Exits

Philadelphia 76ers (+17000)

Joel Embiid’s appendectomy has really hurt the 76ers’ chances in the playoffs, especially since they’re 21-23 straight up when he doesn’t play in the 2025-26 season.

I think Philly can get through the play-in tournament since it’ll get two home games, but it should be a major underdog against Detroit or Boston in the first round.

Toronto Raptors (+25000)

Toronto secured the No. 5 seed in the East with a win on the final day of the regular season, but it nearly fell out of that spot with some poor play down the stretch. The Raptors swept Cleveland in the regular season, though they were eight games under .500 against teams that were .500 or better in the 2025-26 campaign.

Toronto has a top-five defensive rating this season, which could make things tough on Cleveland. Ultimately, I lean with the Cavs to win that series.

Phoenix Suns (+60000)

Phoenix is heavily favored to make the playoffs through the play-in tournament, but it had just one win over San Antonio in a game where Wembanayam played and was 1-3 against the Thunder before winning a meaningless game on Sunday.

The Suns are 15th in the NBA in net rating, which is better than most play-in teams, yet I can’t see them pulling off an upset in the first round with their lack of offensive weapons after Devin Booker.

Los Angeles Clippers (+70000)

Kawhi Leonard has played at an All-NBA level this season, but the Clippers have to win two games just to make the playoffs and the reward would be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder.

I don’t think L.A. has the depth to compete in that series, especially after it squandered the No. 8 spot during the final weeks of the regular season.

Portland Trail Blazers (+200000)

I can’t decide between the Clippers and Blazers for the No. 8 seed, but neither team is getting past Oklahoma City in the first round.

To Portland’s credit, it was eight in the NBA in net rating over the last 15 games of the season, allowing it to get the eight seed and two chances to make the playoffs through the play-in tournament.

Play-In Exits

Orlando Magic (+35000)

One of my bolder claims for the play-in tournament: Orlando won’t advance to make the playoffs.

The Magic are small underdogs against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers on Wednesday, and I think they’d struggle against Charlotte if that becomes a matchup on Friday.

Orlando’s season is perfectly encapsulated in Sunday’s loss to a short-handed Boston team: The Magic had a chance at the No. 6 seed with a win and some help, and instead they lost to the Boston backups to drop to the No. 8 spot.

Golden State Warriors (+80000)

Golden State has a fighting chance to make the playoffs with Steph Curry back, but the Warriors were just 8-19 since the All-Star break and are 1-3 in the four games the two-time MVP has played in since returning from a knee injury.

Injuries defined this Golden State season, and I’m not buying it to get past the Clippers and either Phoenix or Portland to get the No. 8 seed. The Warriors were just 15-26 on the road in the regular season, and they’d need two road wins just to get into the playoff field.

Miami Heat (+70000)

Miami made the playoffs from the No. 10 spot in the play-in tournament last season, but I don’t expect a repeat this season. Erik Spoelstra’s group backed into the postseason, winning just five of its last 15 games while ranking 20th in net rating.

The Heat are facing an uphill battle as 5.5-point underdogs against Charlotte in the first play-in game on Tuesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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