NBA MVP Odds for 2026-27 Season: Victor Wembanyama Favored; Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic Are Contenders

Every season, the NBA MVP race becomes one of the biggest talking points, and last season was the eighth time that a player won back-to-back MVPs since the 1999-00 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led his team to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference once again, capturing the second MVP of his impressive young career.

However, he’s not favored to win for the third season in a row, as San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama enters the 2026-27 campaign as the favorite at +210. He’s one of four players set at +550 or shorter this season, as the MVP race has featured a lot of the same names over the last three years.

NBA Finals MVP Jalen Brunson (+5000) is on the outside of the true contenders in this market, even though he had a top-five MVP finish just a few seasons ago.

With the 2026-27 NBA season just around the corner, the first three games of the regular season set for Tuesday, Oct. 20, I have a full NBA MVP primer to help bettors and fans understand this market before regular-season action begins.

Before taking a look at the odds to win MVP, there are three trends that I’ve found are very helpful when determining the true MVP contenders, especially if you’re looking to place a preseason futures bet.

Only five league MVPs have played less than 70 games since the 1977-78 season

Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season

Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (shortened because of COVID-19)
LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the 2025-26 season

So, even if a player reaches the 65-game threshold needed to win MVP, it’s not common that players that just hit that number win this award.

It’s not impossible (SGA just did it), but he’s one of just two players in nearly 50 years to do so in a non-shortened season.

There have been eight back-to-back MVPs since 2000

Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have all won back-to-back MVP awards.

The MVP almost always plays on a team in the top three of its respective conference

Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed.

When betting on this market, we’re not only looking for a player that is going to put up big numbers, but we also want someone with a path to a top seed in their conference. That makes it a lot tougher for a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo – who is on a Miami team that is fighting to be a top-six team in the East – or a Devin Booker (in a similar spot with Phoenix in the West) to win this award.

2026-27 NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Victor Wembanyama: +210
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +350
Nikola Jokic: +500
Luka Doncic: +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +1200
Jayson Tatum: +1800
Anthony Edwards: +1800
Cade Cunningham: +2200
Jalen Brunson: +5000
Tyrese Maxey: +8000
Donovan Mitchell: +8000
Jaylen Brown: +10000
Tyrese Haliburton: +15000
LaMelo Ball: +15000
Devin Booker: +15000

No other player has shorter than +17000 odds to win the MVP in the 2026-27 season.

Victor Wembanyama Favored to Win First MVP

Wemby is the most dominant two-way player in the league, even though he came up short in the NBA Finals in the 2025-26 season.

Last season, he won the Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in the MVP voting, averaging 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks and 1.0 steal per game while shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from 3.

Wembanyama’s biggest knock in the 2025-26 season was his lack of minutes, as he played just 29.2 per game while the Spurs cruised to the No. 2 seed in the West. Barring injury, he should have a bigger workload in the 2026-27 season, and his defensive impact may be the deciding factor in the MVP race.

Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win Third MVP in a Row?

SGA is looking to join a rare group of players with three consecutive MVPs: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird.

It’s going to be tough for him to get into that class, even though he’s led the Thunder to the best record in the league multiple seasons in a row. Jalen Williams’ injury helped build SGA’s MVP case in the 2025-26 season, but he may need to have a career year scoring the ball to capture a third straight MVP.

Just a few seasons ago, voter fatigue seemed to cost Nikola Jokic a shot at his third MVP in a row. That could end up being the case for Gilgeous-Alexander, even though he enters the season at No. 2 in the odds.

Nikola Jokic Remains Leading Candidate to Win MVP

Jokic has finished first or second in the NFL MVP race in each of the last six seasons, making him an intriguing player to bet on.

The Denver Nuggets star averaged 27.7 points per game in the 2025-26 season and led the league in rebounds per game (12.9) and assists per game (10.7). Jokic’s on/off numbers are always insane with the Nuggets going +12.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court vs. off of it in his NBA career.

Denver may take a step back this season with the core of the team aging and Peyton Watson leaving for Cleveland in a sign-and-trade. Still, Jokic is a nightly triple-double threat and has led Denver to elite finishes in offensive rating just about every season of his career.

That should give him a case in this market, especially if Denver lands a top-three seed in the West.

Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum Could Be Interesting MVP Bets

Luka Doncic (+550) and Jayson Tatum (+1800) are both interesting MVP bets after their teams went all-in to build around them this offseason.

The Los Angeles Lakers let LeBron James walk, building a roster around Doncic, who averaged 33.5 points per game in the 2025-26 season. Injuries have been an issue for Luka in recent years, but he’s a threat to win another scoring title and put up some crazy offensive numbers for a Lakers team that could exceed some low expectations (win total at 44.5) in the 2026-27 season.

Meanwhile, Tatum is stepping back into a featured role for Boston with Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia.

A First Team All-NBA player in four straight seasons before most of the 2025-26 season was lost to injury, Tatum is one of the NBA’s best all-around players, averaging 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in his last full season.

He should have the keys to the Boston offense, and the C’s have been a surefire top-three seed in the Joe Mazzulla era. The way to look at Tatum – and the narrative around him – is simple: Brown was an MVP candidate last season, and he’s not nearly the playmaker that Tatum is offensively. If the Celtics star hovers around 27-28 points, 8-10 rebounds and 6-8 assists per game and Boston has similar success to last season, he’s going to garner interest as an MVP candidate.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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