NBA MVP Odds: Luka Doncic Surges into Top 4, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Remains Favored

There’s less than a month to go in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, and the MVP race appears to be decided.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is -1100 to win the league’s MVP award, but there are three contenders that could end up challenging him by the end of the season.

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San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama is the next-closest player in the odds to win MVP, as he’s +2000 with the Spurs in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic (+2500) and Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic (+3500) are fighting for the No. 3 seed in the West and are slightly lower than Wemby in this market.

Doncic has made a recent surge, passing Jaylen Brown and Cade Cunningham in the odds during the Lakers’ seven-game winning streak. Doncic is now averaging 33.0 points per game, and he’s shooting over 41 percent from 3 since the All-Star break.

Can any players in the chasing pack make a real run at SGA, who is set to win back-to-back MVPs?

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds and some of the movement in this market this week.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -1100
Victor Wembanyama: +2000
Nikola Jokic: +2500
Luka Doncic: +3500
Jaylen Brown: +10000
Donovan Mitchell: +50000
Anthony Edwards: +50000
Kawhi Leonard: +100000
Jalen Brunson: +100000

SGA Remains Favored to Win MVP

Gilgeous-Alexander is the rightful favorite to win the MVP award with the Thunder holding the No. 1 spot in the West.

SGA has the No. 16 player efficiency rating EVER in the 2025-26 season, as he’s shooting over 55 percent from the field while averaging over 31 points per game. There are some Doncic enthusiasts that will argue that Luka has outplayed SGA this season, but Doncic’s PER is No. 103 in NBA history – a long way from SGA’s mark.

Gilgeous-Alexander also leads the NBA in win shares (13.5) this season.

Since Jalen Williams has missed most of the campaign, it’s hard not to give SGA the nod for MVP with OKC on pace to win 60-plus games again in the 2025-26 season.

Luka Doncic Surging in Latest MVP Odds

Luka Doncic has put together an impressive post All-Star break, averaging 33.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game, and he’s moved the Lakers into the No. 3 seed in the West.

L.A. has a 1.5-point cushion on the No. 3 seed, and that would greatly improve Doncic’s chances of winning MVP. Since 1983, only two players have won the league’s MVP award and not finished in the No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in their conference. That could completely crush Jokic’s case, as Denver has sputtered in the second half of the season.

Doncic has the counting stats to win MVP, but the Thunder’s record may end up being the deciding factor when it comes to SGA-Luka debates.

Injury Drops Cade Cunningham Out of MVP Race

Cade Cunningham is no longer listed in the odds to win MVP this season, as he’s expected to miss at least two weeks with a collapsed lung. There is a chance that Cunningham doesn’t return until the playoffs, which would end any chance of him taking home this award.

This season, Cunningham is averaging 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from beyond the arc. If Detroit falls out of the No. 1 seed in the East, it takes away the one thing Cunningham had to stand out above players like Wemby, Jokic or Doncic in this race.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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