NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Commanding Lead Over Wemby, Jokic

With just one week left in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, it appears that the MVP award is all locked up.

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has moved from -600 to -2000 since Friday, taking a commanding lead over both Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic in the MVP race. Luka Doncic (hamstring) is out for at least the rest of the regular season, which has caused his MVP odds to come off the board at the best betting sites.

Gilgeous-Alexander has been favored to win the league’s MVP award for most of the season, and he saw his odds jump on Friday after ESPN’s Tim Bontemps released his third and final MVP straw poll of the season. SGA received 88 first-place votes in the poll while no other player received more than eight first-place votes.

That dropped San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama in the odds to win MVP, and he’s now fallen to +900 after San Antonio lost to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. The case for Wembanyama largely rested on San Antonio overtaking OKC for the No. 1 seed in the West, but the loss on Sunday has put the Spurs three games back of OKC with just four games left in the regular season.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -2000
Victor Wembanyama: +900
Nikola Jokic: +7500
Jaylen Brown: +30000

Based on these odds, it appears that SGA has locked up the award. The Thunder star is averaging 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while shooting an insane 55.2 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from beyond the arc.

OKC has already won 62 games this season, and SGA was able to keep the team as the No. 1 squad in the NBA despite Jalen Williams (wrist, hamstring) missing the majority of the regular season.

Wembanyama (the Defensive Player of the Year favorite) and Jokic (averaging a triple-double) both have impressive cases as well, but it’s clear that voters needed to see a player truly dethrone SGA in this market to win the award.

Jokic and the Nuggets are 12 games back of OKC in the standings, and the Wemby – despite leading the Spurs to a great record compared to their preseason projections – has not had the same impact on the offensive end as players like SGA, Doncic or Jokic.

Barring a late-season collapse by the Thunder in the standings, it appears that the MVP is finally wrapped up after weeks of the odds moving around with Doncic, Jokic and Wemby all spending time in second behind Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA has a strong chance to join a pretty exclusive list of Hall of Famers that have captured consecutive league MVPs. Only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steven Nash, LeBron James (twice), Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokic have won MVPs in back-to-back seasons.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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