NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Skyrockets After Final Straw Poll, Luka Doncic Injury

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is well on his way to entering an elite class of players to win back-to-back league MVPs.

SGA has been favored to win the MVP for a good chunk of the 2025-26 NBA season, but his odds really moved in a big way after the Thunder knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night. The star guard went from -300 to -600 to win the league's MVP award, which translates to an implied probability of 85.71 percent.

Plus, on Friday, ESPN's Tim Bontemps released his third and final MVP straw poll, where he gets the pulse of actual MVP voters and where they stand at this point in the 2025-26 season. Gilgeous-Alexander was the overwhelming favorite, receiving 88 of 100 first-place votes.

Victor Wembanyama (eight votes), Nikola Jokic (three votes) and Jaylen Brown (one vote) were the only other players to receive first-place votes. In Bontemps' scoring system, SGA finished with 314 more points than Wembanyama in the voting, setting him as the clear favorite to win this award.

Luka Doncic, who was third in the odds entering Thursday's action, did not receive a first-place vote in the poll. Doncic leads the NBA in scoring this season, but his MVP case may have been erased on Thursday. The star guard suffered a hamstring injury that could knock him out for the rest of the regular season.

Since Doncic has yet to play in 65 games, he wouldn't be eligible for postseason awards. However, NBC Sorts' Kurt Helin did point out a small loophole that could make Doncic eligible for All-NBA and more.

Maybe he will be. The NBA has an exception for season-ending injuries that occur after March 31 and the player has played in 85% of his team's games up to that point. Doncic qualifies. https://t.co/3fMPTko7VV
— Kurt Helin (@basketballtalk) April 3, 2026

Despite that, oddsmakers have taken Doncic off the board in the latest MVP odds, setting Wembanyama (+350) and Jokic (+7500) as the next two candidates. That's in line with the voting in ESPN's straw poll, though the odds may suggest that Wemby has a better chance (implied probability of 22.22 percent) than he actually does. The fact that Wembanayama only received eight first-place votes in the latest poll shows that he's facing an uphill battle to win MVP.

There is still time for the San Antonio Spurs to catch the Thunder in the standings, which could sway some voters, but the Spurs are two games back with five left in the regular season.

If Gilgeous-Alexander wins back-to-back league MVPs, he'll join an pretty exclusive list of Hall of Famers to accomplish the feat. Only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steven Nash, LeBron James (twice), Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokic have won MVPs in consecutive seasons.

Here's a look at the latest odds from DraftKings to win MVP with just over a week left in the regular season.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -600
Victor Wembanyama: +350
Nikola Jokic: +7500
Jaylen Brown: +25000
Donovan Mitchell: +50000
Kawhi Leonard: +100000
Jalen Brunson: +100000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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