NBA Win Total Predictions for Every Team in 2026-27 Season (Thunder, Spurs Only Teams Projected to Win 60 Games)

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA once again in the 2026-27 season? They’re certainly in the mix, as oddsmakers have released win totals for every NBA team ahead of the season openers on Tuesday, Oct. 20.

One of the most exciting ways to evaluate teams before the regular season is by looking at their win total projections. Oddsmakers are essentially ranking each team in the league, and it’s a great way to see who is projected to finish atop each conference.

This season, only two teams have win total projections at 60 or more games, and only five teams have a win total projection that is above 50 games.

Following the 2025-26 season, the NBA made a major rule change to alter how teams should behave when it comes to improving their draft position. The league’s NBA’s new draft and anti-tanking rules penalize teams with the three worst records in the league – or the relegation zone – which means several “bad” teams are going to attempt to win as much as possible down the stretch, a huge change from previous years.

As a result, it’s expected that the new draft rules are going to change the win total market in a big way this season. Since it’s no longer advantageous to be in the bottom three, there won’t be nearly as many pushover games following the All-Star break.

The market has adjusted quite a few win totals lower than usual with the expectation that the bottom teams in the league will finish with more wins than previous years. For bettors, it’s important to take note of which teams did the majority of their damage against under .500 squads in the 2025-26 season, as that may be tough to repeat.

This season, I’ve decided to predict the OVER or UNDER for every single NBA win total, a fun exercise to evaluate each of these teams entering the regular season.

Now, let’s start things off with the team with the highest win total on the board – the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder Win Total Projection

62.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Oklahoma City has won 68 and 64 games in the last two seasons, finishing with the best record in the West in the 2024-25 campaign even with Jalen Williams missing most of the year. I don’t think the anti-tanking rules impact an OKC team that has posted the best net rating in the league multiple years in a row. – OVER

San Antonio Spurs Win Total Projection

60.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: The Spurs won 62 games in the 2026-27 season, showing that they’re ahead of schedule with their young core. They were a top-three offense and a top-three defense, and have a true MVP candidate in Victor Wembanyama. Still, I think it’s going to be tough to repeat as a 60-win team, especially if there are growing pains with Dylan Harper potentially joining the starting lineup. – UNDER

New York Knicks Win Total Projection

52.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: The Knicks have won 50-plus games in three straight seasons, but they’ve only finished with over 52.5 wins in one of them – the 2025-26 campaign. The defending champs have some questions with Mitchell Robinson now in Boston and Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart playing without contract extensions. This team dominated the playoffs last season, but with a tougher league all around, a 52-win season is completely reasonable. – UNDER

Boston Celtics Win Total Projection

51.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: Boston has been a regular-season wins machine in the Joe Mazzulla era, picking up at least 56 wins in every season. With Jayson Tatum back and taking on the role that Jaylen Brown had in the 2025-26 campaign, I think Boston could end up with a very similar regular season where it’s a top-five team in offensive and defensive rating. – OVER

Philadelphia 76ers Win Total Projection

50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: The talent on this Philly roster is undeniable, but how much will all five stars play together? Joel Embiid has struggled to play even half a season in recent years, and a 41-year-old LeBron James is going to have his games managed. I’m worried a bit about the depth on this team, and the Sixers were two games under .500 without Embiid last season. Winning over 50 games may be a stretch for a team focused on the playoffs more than anything else. – UNDER

Detroit Pistons Win Total Projection

48.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: I don’t love this line for a Pistons team that didn’t add a secondary ball-handler to Cade Cunningham in the offseason and had a long, grueling contract standoff with Jalen Duren. The Pistons won 60 games last season, but I’m expecting some regression after arguably the second-most reliable scorer – Tobias Harris – left in free agency. – UNDER

Denver Nuggets Win Total Projection

48.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets have won 50 or more games in four straight seasons, and they accomplished the feat last year even with the three-time MVP missing 17 games. I think Denver is right back in the 50-win mix in a weaker Western Conference – OVER

Minnesota Timberwolves Win Total Projection

47.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

Prediction: Minnesota had a ton of injury issues in the 2025-26 season with Anthony Edwards only playing in 61 games. He’s usually much more durable than that, and I’m high on the Wolves this season with LaMelo Ball in to boost this offense. I think the No. 3 seed is in play for this team in the West, so I have a slight lean to the OVER since they’ve won 49 or more games in three straight seasons. – OVER

Houston Rockets Win Total Projection

47.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

Prediction: Houston has been a 50-win team in back-to-back seasons, and the West has less firepower through the conference than the East in the 2026-27 campaign. The return of Fred VanVleet should steady an offense that gave away a ton of games in crunch time last season (1-7 in overtime). I think this could be a 48-plus win season for the Rockets. – OVER

Cleveland Cavaliers Win Total Projection

47.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: Cleveland has won 48 or more games in each of the last four seasons, and a slow start in the 2025-26 campaign didn’t stop this team from winning 52 games. However, the Cavs were 25-6 against teams under .500 and just 27-24 against squads that were .500 or better. Cleveland also lost some depth in the offseason, though Peyton Watson could be a wild card player that boosts this team in the 2026-27 campaign. I lean UNDER in an improved East, as a late-season run may not be as easy for the Cavs. – UNDER

Toronto Raptors Win Total Projection

46.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: The Raptors won 46 games in the 2025-26 season, but they were eight games under .500 against teams that were .500 or better. The addition of Kawhi Leonard does change the ceiling for this team, and Immanuel Quickley should be healthier as well. Still, Leonard may not play as many games as he did last regular season, and the East is a lot tougher in the 2026-27 campaign. I lean UNDER, but I think another 46-win campaign is very possible. – UNDER

Miami Heat Win Total Projection

45.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a massive floor raiser for a Miami team that has been in the play-in tournament for several seasons in a row. Still, I’m not sure the Heat are a surefire playoff team in the East, as they lack an offensive hub after Giannis. The Greek Freak has been injured quite a bit in recent seasons, and just one stretch out of the lineup could torpedo Miami’s season. – UNDER

Los Angeles Lakers Win Total Projection

45.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Prediction: After winning just 33 games in Dallas as a rookie, Luka Doncic has led his teams to 43 (shortened season), 42 (shortened season), 52, 38, 50, 50 and 53 wins between his time in Dallas and Los Angeles. The Lakers lost LeBron, but this team is built to thrive around Luka, who may have some better injury luck in the 2026-27 season. This drop off is way too far compared to the Lakers’ finish last season. – OVER

Indiana Pacers Win Total Projection

44.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Prediction: Tyrese Haliburton is back, and I believe the 2025 Eastern Conference champs are poised to make a run up the standings. This is still a deep team, and Rick Carlisle is an absolute chameleon, adapting to every single change that the league throws his way. Indiana’s uptempo style and full-court pressure made it a pain to play against in the 2024-25 campaign. The market is a little low on the Pacers, who should be in the mix to win their division this season. – OVER

Orlando Magic Win Total Projection

43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Prediction: Orlando won 45 games in the 2025-26 season, boosted by a 22-7 record against teams that were under .500. Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner have yet to prove they can stay healthy for a full season, and I have questions about the shooting on this team. Sean Sweeney may be the voice Orlando needs to get into contention in the East, but there are also financial questions with this core. If the Magic start slow, they are a potential seller at the deadline as they try to get cheaper and avoid the second apron. – UNDER

Atlanta Hawks Win Total Projection

43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Atlanta’s 2025-26 season was buoyed by a late-season run over tanking teams, something that oddsmakers aren’t expecting to happen in the 2026-27 season. Still, I enjoyed the Hawks’ offseason moves, and they were a better team following the Trae Young trade. Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins are solid bench pieces to add, and the Hawks have enough rotation depth to survive an injury or two this season. I lean OVER, but this one could be close. – OVER

Portland Trail Blazers Win Total Projection

41.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Ja Morant and Damian Lillard are in, but will it lead to more wins than last season? The Blazers were just 19th in the NBA in net rating last season, and I’m expecting them to take a small step back in the West with teams like Dallas and Utah likely having higher floors. After all, the Blazers were just 16-33 against teams that were .500 or better last season. – UNDER

Phoenix Suns Win Total Projection

39.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: Phoenix won 45 games in the 2025-26 season, and it added Miles Bridges in the offseason to give this offense a boost around Devin Booker. Mark Williams’ injury hurts, but the Suns are projected to finish well below .500 at this total. I think a 40-win season is possible, especially if Phoenix finishes with a top-10 defense for the second straight season. – OVER

Charlotte Hornets Win Total Projection

38.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: Charlotte had a huge second-half run last season, finishing the campaign with the No. 5 offense and the No. 8 net rating. Then, it traded LaMelo Ball in the offseason. Coby White may be able to fill some of his production, but in an improved East, the Hornets may take a small step back. – UNDER

Golden State Warriors Win Total Projection

37.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: I don’t know how anyone could be high on this Warriors team right now with Steph Curry coming off an injury-riddled season and Kristaps Porzingis already dealing with another illness. The Warriors didn’t add much in the offseason, they are one Steph injury away from potentially missing the play-in. – UNDER

Utah Jazz Win Total Projection

36.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Prediction: I really love this Jazz roster with Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. There may be some growing pains with so many young players, but Utah could be worth a look as a play-in team now that it isn’t incentivized to tank. – OVER

Washington Wizards Win Total Projection

34.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: Washington’s win total is up this season with Trae Young and Anthony Davis set to play around an intriguing young core with No. 1 overall pick A.J. Dybantsa, Alex Sarr and more. The question: How much will Young and Davis actually play? I think the Wizards are getting too much love in a tough Eastern Conference. – UNDER

Dallas Mavericks Win Total Projection

33.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: Kyrie Irving is back, and Dallas should take a step forward in Cooper Flagg’s second season. The Mavs made some nice additions in Santi Aldama and a major upside swing on former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher. Ultimately, this is a bet on Flagg improving with a proven No. 1 like Irving next to him – although a Kyrie trade at the deadline could derail Dallas’ season. – OVER

Memphis Grizzlies Win Total Projection

29.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Prediction: This Memphis team has gotten a lot of love for the young core it has – led by Cam Boozer and Zach Edey – but injuries to Edey, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. and several others derailed the 2025-26 season. In fact, that’s been the case for the Grizz for multiple years. I don’t want to put a ton of stock into a rookie Boozer being the best player on a 30-plus win team. – UNDER

Chicago Bulls Win Total Projection

29.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis make this Bulls team an interesting watch, and Josh Giddey and Norman Powell should help raise Chicago’s floor on a night-to-night basis. Chicago has at least 31 wins in every season since the 2020-21 campaign. I lean OVER, but not by much. – OVER

Los Angeles Clippers Win Total Projection

28.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Prediction: The Clippers had a tumultuous offseason to say the least, and now Kawhi Leonard is out and Brandon Ingram – with a partially torn Achilles – is in. Max Strus and Ingram are just two of the key rotation pieces already hurt for the Clips, who may end up being sellers at the deadline as they look to recoup draft capital that they lost from the league’s sanctions. – UNDER

New Orleans Pelicans Win Total Projection

28.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Prediction: New Orleans was trying to win games last season – it didn’t control its own pick – and yet it still went 26-56. This team is really confusing, and Derik Queen and Zion Williamson don’t look like a match together on the defensive end. I think the Pels would be better off selling some pieces – like Trey Murphy III – at the deadline, and I don’t see why they’d win more games this season with the rest of the bad teams also looking to win. – UNDER

Milwaukee Bucks Win Total Projection

25.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Milwaukee could have a fire sale at the deadline, especially if it doesn’t want to extend players like Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. I don’t love the makeup of this roster, and there is a severe lack of proven scoring on a night-to-night basis. This team won just 32 games last season and it had Giannis for 36 of the 82. – UNDER

Brooklyn Nets Win Total Projection

24.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Prediction: Jordi Fernandez always gets his teams to play hard, and the Nets aren’t going to be looking to lose as much as previous years. Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. should give this team a good enough floor to win 25 or more games. – OVER

Sacramento Kings Win Total Projection

20.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Prediction: The Kings are not good, but as long as Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine are on the roster, there is somewhat of a floor for a team that floor for a team that won 22 games last season with both of them missing a ton of time due to injury. – OVER

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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