New York Jets Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Jets' Baffling Offseason Will Cost Them)

There's an argument to be made that no NFL fanbase has it worse than those who cheer for the New York Jets. They have the longest active playoff drought in the league, having not made the postseason since 2010. Not only that, but they are rarely, if ever, competitive.

They haven't surpassed seven wins since a 10-6 campaign in 2015, and are coming off a year where they went just 3-14. Unfortunately, I don't have good news for any Jets fans who are reading this article. If the betting market is correct, it's going to be another tough year for the Jets.

Let's take a look at their projected win total and then I'll give my thoughts.

2026 New York Jets Win Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 5.5 (-120)
UNDER 5.5 (+100)

The Jets' win total is set at 5.5 with the OVER set at -120, meaning there's an implied probability of 54.55% that the Jets will finish at 6-11 or better. That would be an improvement on their 2025 record of 3-14, but still a long way off competing for a playoff spot. They have the second-lowest win total in the AFC East, with the Dolphins set at 4.5.

It's clear the Jets are doing their best to rebuild, but they held off on drafting a quarterback in the 2026 draft. Their plan is likely to hold out for the 2027 draft, which is expected to be a much better quarterback draft class with the likes of Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, and CJ Carr.

They had three first-round draft picks in 2026, selecting David Bailey No. 2 overall to help the pass rush, and then selecting some offensive weapons in Kenyon Sadiq, the tight end from Oregon, and Omar Cooper Jr., the wide receiver from Indiana. Unfortunately, I don't think that's enough to turn them into a playoff contender this season.

In my article 32 Bets for 32 Teams, I broke down why I'm betting the UNDER on their win total:

The New York Jets were dead last in the NFL in DVOA last season and second last in net yards per play, and they responded in the offseason by maintaining Aaron Glenn as head coach and signing a ton of veterans who are well past their prime, like Geno Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Demario Davis. They would now have to go 6-11 or better to go over their win total. I can't see that happening. It's going to be another long year for Jets fans.

Prediction: UNDER 5.5 Wins (+100) via DraftKings

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