NFC North Division Odds for 2026 Season (Expect a Bounceback Season in Detroit)

Each team in the NFC North has won the division at least once in the past five seasons. It's the Green Bay Packers who, surprisingly, have the longest divisional drought, having not won it since 2021.

It's shaping up to once again be one of the most wide-open divisions in all of football in 2026. Most divisions have at least one team that has virtually no chance of winning, but in the NFC North, even the Minnesota Vikings could come out on top if Kyler Murray returns to his former self in his first year with his new team.

The Chicago Bears won the division last year, playing to an 11-6 record behind a strong season by both Caleb Williams and new head coach Ben Johnson. Despite being the defending champions, they're third on the odds list to go back-to-back.

Let's dive into the odds and my prediction.

NFC North Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Lions +145
Packers +260
Bears +350
Vikings +460

The Lions finished in last place in the division last year at 9-8, but now they're set as +145 favorites to win the division this season, which is an implied probability of 40.82%. The Lions won the division in back-to-back years in 2023 and 2024, but had a disappointing 2025 campaign where things didn't go their way.

There are a lot of things to like about the Lions heading into this season. Firstly, I thought they were a lot better than their record showed last season, finishing the year third in DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play, the best mark amongst all teams that didn't make the postseason. This season, they get to play the easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponent projected win totals, which gives them an inside track to not only win the NFC North, but potentially capture the No. 1 seed.

Meanwhile, I think the Bears are a big regression candidate. Every season there's a team that continuously pulls out wins late in games, falls on the right side of variance more often than not, and the 2025 version of that was the Chicago Bears. I'm still not sold on this team on either side of the ball, and I'm not yet convinced that Caleb Williams is a franchise quarterback. He ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every single quarterback metric, including 29th in completion percentage over expected.

For the other two teams, the Packers didn't do enough this offseason for me to believe they can take the next step, and I have to see it before I believe it with Kyler Murray in Minnesota.

I'm taking the Lions to be named kings of the (NFC) North).

Pick: Lions to Win NFC North (+145) via FanDuel

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