NFL Draft Odds By the Numbers: What Betting Market Tells Fans to Expect in First Round

Brian Giuffra | Apr 23, 2025

Colorado WR/DB Travis Hunter is a heavy betting favorite to be drafted No. 2 overall. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Betting markets are among the best predictive tools for the NFL Draft. For fans wondering who their team will pick in the first round on Thursday, odds can give an amazing gauge, as our Mock Draft based on odds shows.

After all, Vegas usually gets it right.

With that in mind, I thought it would be fun and informative to break down the NFL Draft odds to give everyone an idea of what to expect on Thursday night. All the odds in this story come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Draft Odds By the Numbers 

1

Cam Ward is almost assuredly going first overall based on the odds. The Miami quarterback is -20000 to be the first pick, currently held by the Titans. While no NFL insider has confirmed that’s the pick, the odds do. 

2

Travis Hunter is -1200 to go second overall. The Browns hold the second pick. There’s been some chatter about teams trying to move up, but no matter who has the second pick, there’s a 92.3% implied probability of the Colorado WR/DB going second. 

2.5

The OVER/UNDER on total quarterbacks drafted in the first round is 2.5, with the OVER a -136 betting favorite against the UNDER at +102. Ward will be a first-round pick, and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders is expected to be drafted in the first round too. Does that mean Jaxson Dart is the third? More on both Sanders and Dart below. 

3

This is where things get interesting. The Giants have the third pick. Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter is -650 to be picked third. That represents an 86.7% implied probability. The Giants also need a QB, and Sanders is +700 to be picked third. That’s only a 12.5% implied probability. It seems likely that Carter goes third, but this is where we could see some surprises. 

5

Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is now an outright betting favorite to be a top 5 pick with -150 odds. His odds to be drafted fifth, a slot currently held by the Jaguars, are -125. The Jags have former first-round pick Travis Etienne as the presumptive starter at RB. If they pick Jeanty, they could trade Etienne, though we don’t have odds on that. 

6

Besides Ward, Hunter, Carter, Jeanty and LSU OT Will Campbell, six other players are outright betting favorites to be drafted in the Top 10: Michigan DT Mason Graham (-1050), Missouri OT Armand Membou (-750), Georgia LB Jalon Walker (-750), Penn State TE Tyler Warren (-155), Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr. (-145), and Georgia DE Mykel Williams (-120). 

Warren is the most interesting of the bunch. He exploded for Penn State this past year and showed the versatility coaches covet at TE. Based on the odds, his most likely landing spot in the Top 10 is the Bears at pick 10. He’s +380 to be picked in that position. 

14

Here are 14 other players with outright odds to be drafted in the first round: Ole Miss DE Walter Nolen (-1500), UNC RB Omarion Hampton (-1500), South Carolina DB Nick Emmanwori (-1350), Alabama OL Tyler Booker (-950), Ohio State OT Josh Simmons (-900), Sanders (-700), Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka (-500), Michigan DT Kenneth Grant (-390), Dart (-350), Boston College DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (-300), Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr. (-280), Kentucky DB Maxwell Hairston (-210), Tennessee DE James Pearce Jr. (-160), Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson (-125).

If you cross reference these odds with your team's position of need you can get an idea of who will be picked. For instance, Hampton has been projected to the Broncos, and his odds certianly suggest he won't make it to Day 2.

15. Sanders was once the betting favorite to be picked first overall, with -180 odds in that market back in December. Now he’s -310 to be picked outside of the Top 15 picks. That’s a 75.6% implied probability. 

Sanders is favored to be picked by the Steelers, who have the 21st pick this year, with +175 odds. The Giants (+350), Browns (+360) and Saints are next on that list. It does seem Sanders' stock has taken a tumble in the last few weeks. 

144. The Cowboys seem set at QB with Dak Prescott under center, yet they’re -144 to draft a QB this year. Is the heir apparent to Prescott in this year's class?

The Cowboys are -220 to draft a WR with their first pick. They are currently slated to pick 12th. Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan is favored to be drafted by the Cowboys with +125 odds. The next highest is the Jaguars at +490. 

Looks like Prescott, or whoever the Cowboys' starting QB is next year, will have another weapon to complement CeeDee Lamb. 

230. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe might have the highest upside of any player in this draft. Wherever he lands, it will be a story. The Browns have the highest odds to pick Milroe at +230. The Giants are next at +380. Could Milroe be the first pick in the second round? The odds suggest he’ll be in Cleveland either way. 

350. Dart is one of the most intriguing prospects on the board and is expected to be drafted in the first round. He has -350 odds to go in the first 32 picks and is +195 to be drafted by the Giants. That means New York would have to move back into the first round to get him, unless they shock us all by picking him third overall. The Saints (+240) and Browns (+470) are next highest to draft Dart. 

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