NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds 4.0: Predicting the Top 10 Picks in the 2026 NFL Draft

Welcome to April, which means welcome to NFL Draft month! It was just a few short months ago when the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots faced off in the Super Bowl, and now it's time for fans of the rest of the NFL to get in the mix as the next generation of players get selected to their first NFL team.

You're going to read a ton of mock drafts this season, but I'm going to do mine a little bit differently. Instead of using insider information, I'm going to use the widely available betting odds to try to predict the top 10 picks in the draft.

You can check out the most recent edition I wrote of this mock draft here.

2026 NFL Mock Draft Based on Odds

Pick No. 1: Fernando Mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders

Fernando Mendoza has remained at -20000 to be the No. 1 overall pick for the past couple of months. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 99.5% chance of being the top pick by the Raiders. With Dante Moore and Trinidad Chambliss going back to school for another year, there's no other logical choice than the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner.

Pick No. 2: Arvell Reese - New York Jets

Arvell Reese remains the betting favorite to be the No. 2 overall pick at -170 odds, but that's a drop from where he was a couple of weeks ago when he was set at -245. That's a drop in implied probability from 71.01% to 62.96%. David Bailey has closed the gap on Reese to be the No. 2 pick, now sitting with odds of +165.

Pick No. 3: David Bailey - Arizona Cardinals

The odds largely indicate that whichever player isn't selected in the No. 2 slot will be taken by the Arizona Cardinals in the No. 3 slot. David Bailey currently sits as the +210 favorite with Arvell Reese close behind at +225. If the Cardinals decide to go offensive line instead, Francis Mauigoa is the betting favorite to be that guy at +400.

Pick No. 4: Jeremiyah Love - Tennessee Titans

Last month, Jeremiyah Love was as high as -170 to be selected at No. 4 by the Tennessee Titans. He dropped to +100 in the latest edition of my mock draft, but has since fallen further at +150. If David Bailey isn't selected in the first three picks, expect the Titans to go with him here in this spot. He's listed at +300 behind Love. If Bailey is off the board and the Titans don't want to go with a running back, Rueben Bain Jr. (+600) and Sonny Styles (+750) are the next names on the list.

Pick No. 5: Sonny Styles - New York Giants

Sonny Styles' odds to be the No. 5 selection have continued to improve. He has moved from +195 to +175 since the most recent version of my mock draft, meaning his implied probability has improved to 36.36%. Love (+425), Caleb Downs (+450), and Mauigoa (+500) are the next names on the odds list for the Giants.

Pick No. 6: Carnell Tate - Cleveland Browns

DraftKings has made my job a bit easier this week, as they've now posted odds for each selection from No. 1 to No. 10. The favorite to go in the No. 6 slot is Carnell Tate to the Cleveland Browns at +150, an implied probability of 40%. The Browns certainly need help at wide receiver, but there's also a chance they opt for an offensive lineman here, as Monroe Freeling (+425) and Francis Mauigoa (+550) are the next two names on the odds list.

Pick No. 7: Rueben Bain Jr. - Washington Commanders

Despite DraftKings having odds posted for the top 10 picks, it doesn't mean it's as straightforward as keying in the betting favorite in each spot. For the Washington Commanders at No. 7, DraftKings has Jeremiyah Love (+200), Sonny Styles (+370), and Carnell Tate (+400) as the top three favorites, despite each of them already being favored for another team. That tells me if one of those three drops to the Commanders, there's a strong chance they'll scoop them up. If all three are off the board, Rueben Bain Jr. is the next logical option. He's set as fourth on the odds list in this spot at +500.

Pick No. 8: Mansoor Delane - New Orleans Saints

Carnell Tate (+350) and Rueben Bain Jr. (+350) are the top options for the Saints, but with Tate in Cleveland and Bain Jr. in the state's capital, that leaves the top cornerback in the draft, Mansoor Delane, the next logical option at +550. The Saints desperately need help on the defensive side of the football, so Delane makes plenty of sense in this spot.

Pick No. 9: Francis Mauigoa - Kansas City Chiefs

Francis Mauigoa remains in the spot for me. He's third on the odds list to be selected by the Chiefs at +650. There's a chance that no offensive line comes off the board until Mauigoa in this spot, as Kansas City tries to find some more protection for its generational quarterback.

Pick No. 10: Caleb Downs - Cincinnati Bengals

No team in the NFL needs more help in the secondary than the Cincinnati Bengals, which means Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety, makes too much sense for them to select in this spot, and the betting odds agree. He's set as the +300 favorite, with an implied probability of 25%.

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