NFL MVP Odds: Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes on the Rise, Josh Allen No Longer Odds-On Favorite

Breaking down the latest NFL MVP odds after Sunday's action in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is +1200 to win the MVP award this season. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The NFL MVP race is heating up as Week 5 comes to a close on Monday night, as there are eight different players with +1600 odds or shorter.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen had snuck up to an odds-on favorite at -105 ahead of Week 5, but a loss to the New England Patriots has knocked the reigning MVP back to +150 in the market – although he still is the favorite. 

The biggest winners from Week 5 appear to be Baker Mayfield (jumped from +1800 to +1200) and Patrick Mahomes (now +400) even though Mahomes has yet to play his game this week. The Kansas City Chiefs battle the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night in Week 5. 

However, there are several reasonable contenders for this award, including Matthew Stafford (+1800), Jared Goff (+1500) and some dark horse candidates like Drake Maye (+3000) and Dak Prescott (+4500). 

There’s a ton of time left in the regular season for plenty of players to make a case, but with there being no undefeated team left in the NFL, things are wide open for the top spot in each conference, making the MVP race even more intriguing. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds and a plethora of players to watch in this market ahead of Week 6. 

NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Josh Allen: +150
• Patrick Mahomes: +400
• Justin Herbert: +1000
• Baker Mayfield: +1200
• Matthew Stafford: +1200
• Jordan Love: +1300
• Jared Goff:+1500
• Jalen Hurts: +1600
• Lamar Jackson: +2200
• Jayden Daniels: +2200
• Drake Maye: +3000
• Daniel Jones: +4500
• Dak Prescott: +4500
• Aaron Rodgers: +4500
• Trevor Lawrence: +7500
• Sam Darnold: +7500

Baker Mayfield Jumps into Top Four in NFL MVP Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-1 after another last-second win in Week 5, and Baker Mayfield continues to dice up opposing defenses, even with Mike Evans and Bucky Irving out of the lineup. 

Mayfield threw for 379 yards and two scores in Week 5, and he’s now up to 10 touchdowns and just one pick in 2025 while throwing for 256.6 yards per game. Mayfield also leads the NFL with four fourth quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives in 2025. That’s MVP-caliber stuff. 

While Mayfield doesn’t have the rushing ability of Allen, he has used his legs a ton this season – especially in crucial spots. The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 7.6 yards per carry, toting the rock 19 times for 144 yards in 2025. 

With the Bucs firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the likely NFC South champion this season, Mayfield has a rock-solid case to win MVP. His numbers could also make a leap once Evans returns to an already loaded receiving corps. 

Patrick Mahomes MVP Stock Skyrockets Ahead of Monday Night Football

Mahomes has yet to play in Week 5, but oddsmakers are clearly buying stock in his Week 4 performance when he threw four scores and helped Kansas City put up 37 points in a win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Mahomes has spent most of the season without his top two receivers, yet Kansas City has a chance to move to 3-2 in Week 5, which would put it into a tie record wise atop the AFC West. 

The three-time Super Bowl champion has seven scores to just one pick in 2025, and he’s jumped from +1000 last week to +400 in the latest odds to win this award. 

Josh Allen Drops From Odds-On Favorite to Win NFL MVP

It was kind of shocking to Allen as an odds-on favorite to win MVP after four weeks, even though the Bills were undefeated at the time.

Allen has gotten off to a solid start, throwing for 1,217 yards, nine scores and two picks in five games while adding 212 yards and three scores on the ground. However, he hasn’t blown other players out of the water with this statistical profile, making it a little surprising that he was so heavily favored to win back-to-back MVPs.

Prior to the loss to New England, Buffalo had the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Now, there is a lot more competition for that spot, and the Bills are far from guaranteed to win the AFC East. 

Allen is going to be in this conversation all season, but there is zero value in betting him at this price with the MVP race still wide open in 2025. 

Jared Goff Undervalued in NFL MVP Odds

The Detroit Lions have won four games in a row, and quarterback Jared Goff is balling. After dismantling the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, Goff is up to 12 touchdowns (which leads the league) and just two picks this season while completing an NFL-best 75.2 percent of his passes.

The Lions are the top team in my NFL Power Rankings this week, and they have a path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, especially after the Eagles lost on Sunday to Denver.

While Goff won’t put up the rushing numbers that some of the players ahead of him will, he’s easily one of the best passers in the NFL and is a huge part of an elite offense. If Detroit is in the mix for 14 or more wins once again in 2025, it’s going to be hard to keep Goff off the short list of MVP candidates. 

Honorable Mentions

Dak Prescott: There may not be anyone playing the quarterback position better with less talent around him than Dak Prescott right now. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback has 10 scores and three picks this season while leading the NFL in completions and attempts. With CeeDee Lamb out, Prescott has kept Dallas afloat at 2-2-1. The record likely will hold him back in this market, but Dak deserves some love as a dark horse contender. 

Drake Maye: The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Maye picked up a signature win on Sunday night in Week 5, upsetting Allen and the Bills. Maye has seven touchdown passes and two picks in five games, and he’s ran for a couple of scores as well. The numbers aren’t massive, but the young quarterback could be building a strong narrative for himself if the Patriots end up winning the AFC East. 

Daniel Jones: Jonathan Taylor’s greatness has taken a lot from Jones’ overall stats (just six touchdown passes this season), but the Colts are 4-1 and atop the AFC South heading into Week 6. Jones has thrown for 1,290 yards and completed 71.3 percent of his passes, showing that he’s a massive upgrade for Indy this season. At +4500, he could be worth a small bet as a dark horse in this market.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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