NFL Playoff Odds: Which Teams Are Potential Pretenders? Oddsmakers Aren't Buying Browns Yet

It may be a little early to start thinking about the NFL Playoff Picture, but things are starting to take shape with about a quarter of the regular season in the books.

There are three undefeated teams left at this point in the campaign – Kansas City, San Francisco and Minnesota – and only 14 teams are favored to make the playoffs in the odds at the best betting sites.

Recently, the Philadelphia Eagles moved from favorites to underdogs to make the postseason after losing their second game in a row, and they’re one of several teams on the brink of playoff contention. Still, at this point early in the season, there may be a few teams floating around in the playoff picture that won’t be there once December rolls around.

Sports Illustrated asked several oddsmakers to identify a team that they believe is a “pretender,” to examine which team may have some value in their odds to make (or miss) the postseason.

Minnesota Vikings

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -290

At 4-0, the Vikings are atop the NFC North and are in a great spot to make the playoffs. Despite that, oddsmakers aren’t exactly buying them to make that happen.

In fact, Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, revealed to Sports Illustrated that Minnesota would be an underdog on a neutral field against one of the 0-4 teams in the league.

“That might be the Vikings and on the other side of that, the underachiever is the Houston Texans,” Avello said. “The amusing part is the 0-4 Texans would still be favored over the 4-0 Vikings on a neutral field.”

The main question lies with the Minnesota offense, which is 27th in the NFL in EPA/Play and 31st in success rate through four games. An elite defense (No. 1 in EPA/Play) has kept the Vikings undefeated, but that may not be able to hold up all season against a tough NFC North division.

“The Minnesota Vikings and their offense have shown themselves to be pretenders thus far despite their undefeated record,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.

The Vikings do have two key division wins under their belt (one against Green Bay, one against Chicago), but the entire division is .500 or better through four weeks. The Vikings have the 12th-hardest schedule the rest of the way, per Tankathon, and if the offense doesn’t improve, they’ll likely fall back in this market.

Cleveland Browns

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +250

Cleveland is off to a 3-1 start in the 2026 season, but oddsmakers are hesitant to crown Deshaun Watson and Co., especially in a division where every team is .500 or better through four weeks.

“The Browns are definitely the pretender as far as their performance versus our ratings,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Just long-term, this doesn't really appear to be sustainable. It's really hard to win with the offensive line that they have regardless of who's under center, and regardless of how good [Quinshon] Judkins has looked at times. And even with the AFC North being up for grabs, we're still not high on the Browns at all. We do believe it's likelier than not that they bottom out rather than make a playoff push.”

In speaking to multiple oddsmakers, we learned that another 3-1 AFC team – the Las Vegas Raiders – is rated higher than Cleveland by a couple points across the market. That’s also reflected in the playoff odds with Las Vegas steaming all the way down to +160 while the Browns at +250 heading into a winnable Week 5 game against the New York Jets.

Las Vegas Raiders

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +160

The Raiders aren’t really a team that was identified as a "pretender" in the playoff race, but oddsmakers aren’t ready to consider them a true playoff team just yet, either.

“We do view the Raiders as a fringe playoff contender, and part of that hesitation is just what are they going to do with [rookie quarterback Fernando] Mendoza?” Gour said. “Are they going to run – if they're 6-6 heading into Week 13 – are they going to run with [Kirk] Cousins to the finish line, or are they going to let the kid get some looks? And that could greatly affect their rating.”

Currently, the Raiders are 11th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense and seventh in EPA/Play on defense, which is a pretty impressive split through four games. The issue? Their schedule gets a lot tougher in the coming weeks and is considered the 10th-hardest in the NFL the rest of the way, per Tankathon.

New York Giants

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +280

Jaxson Dart is done for the season, yet the New York Giants are atop the NFC East at 3-1 through four weeks. The schedule gets a lot tougher for New York in the coming weeks, and one oddsmaker is expecting Jameis Winston and Co. to fall off at some point in 2026.

“The Giants and Browns would be two easy ones that would fit that narrative,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated when asked about a potential pretender this season. “The Giants in theory should hit reality and lose a few and the same idea with the Browns.”

Both the Dallas Cowboys and Eagles have better odds to make the playoffs and win the NFC East this season.

New England Patriots

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -205

The Patriots made the Super Bowl in the 2025 season, but they’re off to a 2-2 start in 2026 and Drake Maye has been extremely shaky over the first few weeks.

However, a win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 has shifted New England to better than a 2/1 favorite to make the playoffs. Still, not every oddsmaker is sold just yet.

“My pre-season pretender was the Patriots so they still fit in my eyes,” Cipollini said.

New England is currently 12th in EPA/Play on defense and 22nd on offense, and it has some major injuries that it's dealing with, mainly to A.J. Brown and Christian Gonzalez. On the bright side, the Patriots are just 21st in remaining schedule strength, per Tankathon, which should give them a strong chance to at least earn a wild card spot in the AFC.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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