NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Preseason Week 1 (Rams on Top, Bet Lions, Eagles, Broncos?)

Week 1 of the preseason is upon us!

The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers got things started on Thursday night in the Hall of Fame Game, but a full slate of preseason games comes our way on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Now, the preseason isn't going to alter the Super Bowl odds (unless we get a major injury in camp), but it is a time to see how some of the new additions for each team will fit in to the 2026 plan.

Oddsmakers have left things pretty static in the odds all offseason, as the Los Angeles Rams (+550) are the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. Still, there is an interesting chasing pack that should weed out the contenders and pretenders over the first few weeks of the regular season.

Football is back, and so are my weekly NFL Power Rankings based on the odds to win the Super Bowl. The premise is simple, I'm ranking teams based on how likely I believe it is that they win the Super Bowl with the betting odds as a guide.

Will I always match up with Vegas? Not a chance. But, that may help us identify some favorable odds in the futures market during the season.

So, here's the first preseason edition of SI Betting's power rankings, where the Rams and Seahawks lead the way.

NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

1. Los Angeles Rams (+550)

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rams added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie this offseason after losing in the NFC title game in 2025. Plus, there's a chance Aaron Donald comes out of retirement to re-join the team.

On paper, the Rams are the most talented squad in football, but they need to stay healthy (which is tough with a lot of vets) to come through for bettors that take them at this price.

2. Seattle Seahawks (+1100)

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Seahawks are right there with the Rams talent wise, though the loss of Kenneth Walker III will be interesting at the start of the season. Can Seattle establish the running game with rookie Jadarian Price?

Sam Darnold has proven in back-to-back years that he is one of the game's better quarterbacks, and Seattle's defense is still loaded. It's possible we get a rematch of last year's NFC title game in 2026.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)

Three NFC teams in a row to kick off this list?

I'm high on the Eagles -- especially at this price (+1600) -- to get back to the top of the NFC in 2026. Jalen Hurts had a bad 2025 season, but he's a Super Bowl winning quarterback in an offense that no longer has to force feed A.J. Brown to keep him happy.

Plus, Philly has a ton of talent on both lines and on defense as a whole entering this season. If they can scheme things correctly for Hurts, they should be heavy favorites in the NFC East.

4. Buffalo Bills (+1000)

Buffalo is tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl, which is purely a bet on Josh Allen. D.J. Moore should improve this offense, but the Bills were 14th in EPA/Play on defense last season and were awful against the run.

Allen is being asked to carry a big workload week in and week out, but his durability gives Buffalo a really solid floor as a contender.

5. Baltimore Ravens (+1000)

The ceiling is high for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson leading the way, but his injury history is starting to pile up.

Baltimore added Trey Hendrickson to a defense that struggled a lot of 2025, and hopefully new head coach Jesse Minter can fix things on that side of the ball. Baltimore is tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from guaranteed to win the AFC North in 2026.

6. Denver Broncos (+2000)

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Denver may not be the sixth-best team in the NFL, but these odds (13th in the NFL) are pretty shocking for a team that made the AFC title game in 2025. Denver may have been in the Super Bowl had Bo Nix not gotten hurt, and the young QB outdueled Josh Allen in a playoff game.

Denver added Jaylen Waddle to bolster this offense, and it brings back most of a defense that was No. 7 in the NFL in EPA/Play last season.

The Broncos and Rams were the only teams in the NFL last season that were top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (+1600)

This is purely a bet on Patrick Mahomes, who when healthy, is the best quarterback in the NFL.

Kansas City improved its run game with Kenneth Walker III, but the defensive side of the ball will be interesting now that Trent McDuffie is in L.A.

8. New England Patriots (+1600)

This spot may end up being way too low for Drake Maye and the Patriots, but I need to see this team succeed against a schedule that isn't the worst in the NFL.

New England only played a couple of playoff teams in 2025 (one being Carolina) and Maye wasn't exactly great during the run to the Super Bowl.

The addition of A.J. Brown should make this offense tough to stop, but New England has 10 games against teams that made the playoffs in 2025.

9. Detroit Lions (+1900)

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

I am high on the Lions in 2026 after they were sixth in EPA/Play on offense and 13th in EPA/Play on defense in 2025.

Detroit will play a last-place schedule in 2026, which should put it in a great spot to win a tough division. Health has been a major issue for this team down the stretch of the last two seasons, but there is a lot of young talent (especially on offense) around Jared Goff.

10. Green Bay Packers (+1800)

The NFC North is going to be tough to get through in 2026, but at some point Jordan Love and the Packers have to break through. Green Bay was fourth in EPA/Play on offense last season, but it has to be better defensively (23rd in EPA/Play in 2025) if it wants to win one of the best divisions in football.

11. San Francisco 49ers (+1900)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 49ers are already dealing with a bunch of injuries in camp, and they lost Ricky Pearsall for the season. A veteran team that needs a lot of older players to stay healthy is risky, but I can't look completely past this team winning 12 games in 2025 with George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy all missing significant time.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (+1700)

The Chargers are a popular pick to win the AFC West, but I can't get behind them as a Super Bowl contender at this price. The reason why?

Justin Herbert has a 54.7 percent completion percentage, four picks and just two touchdowns in three career playoff games, going 0-3. Until he proves he can win on the biggest stage, L.A. is a mid-tier contender.

13. Houston Texans (+1800)

Until C.J. Stroud can show that he's able to go up a level in the playoffs, Houston is a tough team to bet on to win a Super Bowl.

There's no doubt that the Texans have an elite defense -- No. 1 in EPA/Play last season -- but their running game and offensive line have to be better if they want to win multiple playoff games. David Montgomery should help on the ground, but Stroud also can't make the same mistakes that he did during last year's playoff loss to New England.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Am I going to bet on Jacksonville to win the Super Bowl before the season? Probably not.

Is this price a little shocking considering it won the AFC South last season? It definitely is.

Trevor Lawrence played at an MVP level down the stretch of the regular season, but the betting market seems to be cooling on the Jags after their playoff loss. I think Lawrence is the best QB in the AFC South, and that could be enough for the Jaguars to beat out Houston this season.

15. Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)

If Joe Burrow stays healthy, the Cincinnati Bengals will have a shot to win the AFC North this season. Their defense received some major upgrades up front with Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Dexter Lawrence II after they were 29th in EPA/Play defensively in 2026.

Burrow's health is always a question, but the AFC North is up for grabs until Cincy, Pittsburgh or Baltimore prove that they're a cut above this season.

16. Chicago Bears (+2400)

I'm a Caleb Williams believer, but the path back to the playoffs is a lot tougher for Chicago in 2026.

Not only should the Vikings and Lions be better this season, but Chicago now has to play a first-place schedule. There's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball -- and Ben Johnson is an offensive genius -- but I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears are more in the wild card mix in 2026.

17. Dallas Cowboys (+2500)

Dallas Cowboys quartergback Dak Prescott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It all comes down to the Dallas defense in 2026.

Last season, the Cowboys were fifth in EPA/Play on offense but 32nd in EPA/Play on defense, making it impossible for them to win some games even when Dak Prescott and Co. played well.

A full season of Quinnen Williams should help, and offseason additions Rashan Gary and Caleb Downs are immediate upgrades on the defensive side of the ball. The market is pretty high on Dallas, but let's not forget that the Cowboys have just two playoff wins in the last 10 years.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5500)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No team in the NFC South has better than +5500 odds to win the Super Bowl, and the Bucs are the first one mentioned in these rankings.

Tampa Bay fell apart down the stretch of last season (partially due to injuries) and missed the playoffs altogether. Can Baker Mayfield get them back to the postseason in 2026?

Contract negotiations with the star quarterback haven't worked out to this point, so he should be motivated in 2026. The division is wide open, but oddsmakers clearly aren't high on the Bucs as a Super Bowl contender, and I agree.

19. Minnesota Vikings (+5000)

The Vikings won five games in a row to end 2025 and likely will be upgrading at quarterback if Kyler Murray officially beats out J.J. McCarthy.

Kevin O'Connell is one of the best offensive minds in the league, and this team isn't far removed from having the second-best record in the NFC. I think Minnesota could make some noise in the NFC North, which should have four quality squads in 2026.

20. Indianapolis Colts (+6000)

The Colts got off to a great start in the 2025 season, but they started to show cracks even before Daniel Jones went down with a season-ending Achilles injury.

Jones is back, but will he be the same player less than a year removed from the rupture? I'm skeptical, and the Colts are in a tough division that features an elite Houston defense and a Jacksonville team that should right back in the mix to make the playoffs.

21. Washington Commanders (+6000)

Laremy Tunsil may be out for the season, a huge blow to a Commanders team that has to keep Jayden Daniels upright to compete in the NFC.

Washington should have an easier schedule in 2025 than it did in 2026, but Daniels' injury history is a major concern if you're betting on this team to get back to the playoffs.

22. Carolina Panthers (+9000)

Yes, Carolina was 26th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense last season. Yes, there are still questions if Bryce Young is a franchise quarterback.

But, the Panthers gave the Rams a serious run in the playoffs, and I believe those results matter when looking ahead to 2026.

Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd should boost this defense, and I think the NFC South is totally up for grabs this season. The Panthers aren't a Super Bowl contender, but I think these odds are a little low for a team that made the playoffs in 2025.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Pittsburgh benefitted from injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow last season and won the AFC North, but I don't see that happening again in 2026.

Aaron Rodgers was up and down last season and looked completely incapable of winning a playoff game in the Steelers' matchup against Houston.

So, there is a clear ceiling on this team, and now Mike Tomlin isn't around for us to assume Pittsburgh ends up .500 or better. I think the Steelers are facing an uphill battle to be a playoff team in a loaded AFC.

24. New Orleans Saints (+9000)

Tyler Shough was electric in the second half of the 2026 season leading the Saints to a 5-4 record in his starts. In a weak NFC South, there is a world where the Saints end up winning the division, as they had the No. 9 defense in EPA/Play last season.

If Shough's 2025 season wasn't a fluke, New Orleans may be the best "worst-to-first" bet in a division in the entire NFL.

25. New York Giants (+7000)

New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 New York Giants are my, "I'll believe it when I see it" team.

The John Harbaugh hire has brought a lot of hype to New York in 2026, and it has a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. But, do we know Jaxson Dart can stay healthy and consistently play winning football? I believe both of those questions won't be answered until the first few weeks of the regular season, so I'm much cooler on New York's Super Bowl odds than the market is entering 2026.

26. Atlanta Falcons (+13000)

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Falcons have a ton of variance as a team because of their elite talent at receiver, tight end and running back. However, they lost Jalon Walker for the 2026 season and still have a shaky QB room led by Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr.

Based on those two quarterbacks alone, I have a hard time trusting the Falcons as a playoff team entering 2026.

27. Tennessee Titans (+13000)

Cam Ward showed some flashes during his rookie season, and new head coach Robert Saleh is an upgrade over Brian Callahan (who was fired during the 2025 season).

Still, the Titans are tied for the fifth-worst Super Bowl odds in the league and are facing an uphill battle in a division that already has Jacksonville and Houston (playoff teams from last year) as well as a Colts squad that could be back in the postseason mix if Daniel Jones stays healthy.

28. Las Vegas Raiders (+15000)

Las Vegas plays in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL and appears ready to give Kirk Cousins the reigns over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.

Even if Cousins has something left in the tank, the Raiders are still heavily favored to finish in last in the AFC West.

29. Cleveland Browns (+20000)

Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson — Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) and quarterback Deshaun Watson (4). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's hard to get excited about this Cleveland team with the quarterback tandem of Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, especially now that Myles Garrett is no longer anchoring the defense.

30. New York Jets (+20000)

It's tough to imagine a scenario where the Jets are much better than last season, especially after Geno Smith struggled for the Raiders in 2025. New York needs to find a franchise quarterback if it wants to contend in the AFC -- if only it had Sam Darnold!

31. Miami Dolphins (+35000)

Miami blew up its roster after the 2025 season, and it has very few weapons around Malike Willis and De'Von Achane on offense. This could be a long reset season for Miami as it tries to dig out of the Tua Tagovailoa contract.

32. Arizona Cardinals (+50000)

It's just one preseason game, but Carson Beck diced up Carolina in the Hall of Fame game, going 15-for-19 for 188 yards and a score. It's possible he ends up playing some regular season snaps for a Cardinals team that is expected to be one of the worst in the NFL in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google