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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 7 (Are the Rams Frauds? Bears, Broncos Rising After Wins)
A third of the NFL is season is almost in the books -- we can't forget about Monday Night Football -- and there is one things that really stands out:
The Los Angeles Rams are not the team we thought they'd be entering the 2026 season. The preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, Los Angeles lost as a 12.5-point favorite at home against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, falling to 2-4 through six weeks.
Rams head coach Sean McVay had a clear message after the loss.
"We won't win a game unless we figure out how to not beat ourselves."
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 18, 2026
Rams HC Sean McVay after losing to the Cardinals. pic.twitter.com/jZ4KOGLnd2
L.A. had been a top-10 team in these NFL Power Rankings through the first few weeks, but that has completely flipped. With several teams sitting at 4-2 or better through six weeks, there's no way bettors should consider the Rams at their current price, especially in a loaded NFC West.
Each week this season, I'll be power ranking each team based on their odds to win the Super Bowl. So, teams that are near the top of the odds -- and have value -- may be ranked ahead of a team with shorter odds that I'm not as high on. Still, I'll be using the odds as a guide to help fans and bettors understand how each of these teams is valued in the betting market.
The San Francisco 49ers (the No. 1 team entering Week 6) have yet to play this week, so they'll remain in the top spot ahead of their matchup with the Washington Commanders. San Francisco is heavily favored at home to move to 6-0 in the 2026 season.
There are a few key bye weeks coming up in Week 7 -- Buffalo, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington -- and the Bills and Jaguars have put themselves in solid positions to make the playoffs in the 2026 season through six weeks.
There's a pair of new teams in the top five in this week's power rankings, a it's officially time to stay away from the Rams in the futures market. There are simply too many viable Super Bowl contenders actually playing well.
With Caleb Williams back, are the Chicago Bears a true contender? Can Drake Maye and the Patriots return to the Super Bowl this season? What should we make of Denver and Minnesota through six weeks?
I'm answering those questions, and a whole lot more, in this week's edition of our NFL Power Rankings based on the odds to win Super Bowl LXI.
NFL Power Rankings Based on 2026 Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. San Francisco 49ers (+580) Last Week: No. 1
The San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Brock Purdy are favored at home on Monday night with a chance to move to 6-0. They remain in the top spot with the Rams and Seattle losing in Week 6.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+850) LW: No. 2
Kansas City is soaring in the AFC with a 5-0 start, riding yet another huge game from Kenneth Walker III in a win against the Los Angeles Chargers.
This Chiefs offense is a lot more dynamic with Walker in the fold, and the history of Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is hard to look past when considering the most valuable Super Bowl bets. I love the Chiefs at this price with the No. 1 seed in the AFC in play in 2026.
3. Buffalo Bills (+750) LW: No. 4
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills continued their winning ways, knocking off the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6 to move to 5-1. The win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5 was even bigger, as it put the Bills in the conversation to be the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The No. 1 seed in the AFC is in play, and the Bills have kept the New England Patriots at bay for another week in the AFC East race.
4. New England Patriots (+1800) LW: No. 8
Is New England undervalued at this price?
The reigning AFC champs have won three games in a row, and Drake Maye continues to look more like the MVP candidate that he was in 2025. The Patriots have a key road win over Buffalo that should help them in the AFC East race, and their only losses are on the road against playoff contenders in Jacksonville and Seattle.
If you're looking for value in the futures market, New England is one of the best options.
5. Chicago Bears (+1600) LW: No. 12
I'm buying the Bears, who moved all the way up to +1600 to win the Super Bowl after a commanding win over Atlanta in Week 6.
Caleb Williams is back, and one could argue the only reason the Bears even have two losses is because the former No. 1 overall pick missed 3.5 games this season.
As long as Williams is healthy, Chicago's offense is elite. It's scored 90 total points in the two games that Williams has completed. He's an MVP candidate when healthy and makes the Bears the favorite -- in my eyes -- in the NFC North.
6. Baltimore Ravens (+900) LW: No. 6
Baltimore lost to Cleveland in Week 6, but Lamar Jackson (ankle) missed his second game in a row. I'm not willing to drop the Ravens -- and it doesn't seem like oddsmakers are either -- just for that loss.
Now, a division loss certainly hurts, but the Ravens are likely 5-1 if Jackson plays and still have a really high ceiling when he's healthy. If the two-time MVP returns in Week 7, Baltimore is still a surefire Super Bowl contender.
7. Minnesota Vikings (+1800) LW: No. 9
The Vikings were on the bye in Week 6, but at 5-0, they've moved all the way up from +2200 to +1800 to win the Super Bowl this season.
Still, Minnesota is just 27th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense, which makes it a tough team to trust in the futures market.
8. Denver Broncos (+2000) LW: No. 10
The Denver offense is bad. Bo Nix has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
And yet the Broncos are 4-2. Denver has faced a gauntlet to start the season with Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Los Angeles Rams, the Los Angeles Chargers, the 49ers and Seattle. It's insane that Nix has struggled so much and the Broncos have won four games.
The defense is a top-10 unit in EPA/Play, and if there is any positive movement on the offensive side, the Broncos are a dangerous team to face in 2026.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1400) LW: No. 7
Jacksonville lost a huge game against Houston on London on Sunday, putting a damper on a 4-2 start to the season.
The Jags are still in a prime spot to win the AFC South -- they have a two-game cushion -- but their odds to win the Super Bowl dropped from +1300 to +1400 after Week 6.
10. Seattle Seahawks (+1100) LW: No. 3
Seattle is now .500 after losing to Denver in Week 6, and Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in his four starts since recovering from a glute injury.
If Darnold can't find his form from last season's Super Bowl run, the Seahawks may be in trouble. Their defense is still one of the five best in the league, but the offense is way too reliant on Jaxon Smith-Njigba at this point in the season.
11. Detroit Lions (+2600) LW: No. 11
The Lions remain in the No. 11 spot through their Week 6 bye.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900) LW: No. 15
Cincinnati jumps up a spot during its Week 6 bye with Baltimore losing and falling to 4-2 in the 2026 season. A key Week 7 battle with the Ravens is ahead.
13. Green Bay Packers (+3000) LW: No. 15
After a poor start to the season, the Packers have now won three games in a row, including huge wins over potential playoff teams in Chicago and Dallas.
Jordan Love has really aired the ball out in impressive fashion in recent games, and the Pack are alive to win one of the best divisions in the NFL. This Grene Bay defense is for real (top-10 in EPA/Play), and Micah Parsons should be on his way back soon.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+12000) LW: No. 14
It wasn't pretty, but the Steelers are 4-2 after an overtime win against Tampa Bay.
I don't think Pittsburgh is the 14th-best team in the NFL, but the defense has turned in a few impressive showings and this price (+12000) is pretty crazy for a team that is 4-2 and made the playoffs last season.
I don't think Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl ceiling in 2026, but he does have a pretty discernible floor with all his NFL experience.
15. Carolina Panthers (+5500) LW: No. 18
Carolina is in a prime spot to win the NFC South at 3-2, and oddsmakers are taking notice, moving them from +7400 to +5500 to win the Super Bowl.
This offense has been a top-10 unit in EPA/Play, and with Atlanta and Tampa Bay losing on Sunday, the Panthers have a pretty solid cushion in the division with a key win over Atlanta already under their belt.
16. Los Angeles Rams (+1000) LW: No. 5
I can't bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl, especially not at this price.
Los Angeles is now 2-4 with multiple division losses, hitting a potential low point with a loss at home as a 12.5-point favorite against Arizona. There needs to be a long look in the mirror for this team that was the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite entering the season.
17. Cleveland Browns (+20000) LW: No. 19
The Cleveland Browns are first place in the AFC North through six weeks, even though their offense has been pretty shaky at times, including in the win over Baltimore in Week 6.
I can't put the Browns behind so many other team that are likely out of the playoff mix -- or on the fringes -- but it's hard to see Deshaun Watson and Co. keeping this up if Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson play the majority of the season.
Still, the Browns are up from +25000 to +20000 to win the Super Bowl since last week.
18. Houston Texans (+3500) LW: No. 21
Houston picked up a massive win over Jacksonville as it looks to get back in the AFC South race, and it 2-4 it has moved all the way down to +3500 to win the Super Bowl.
That's a pretty crazy price for a team two games under .500, but we've seen the Texans go on a run before (2025), and they have a real path to a 6-4 start. Houston is a 9.5-point favorite at home against the New York Giants in Week 7.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (+9000) LW: No. 16
After a 3-0 start, the Raiders have dropped three games in a row against true playoff contenders in Kansas City, New England and Buffalo.
This was always the destiny for a Raiders team that has a much higher floor with Kirk Cousins under center, but still may not have the playoff ceiling. Las Vegas is a home dog in Week 7 against the L.A. Rams. An upset could change the sentiment around this Vegas team after three straight losses.
20. Dallas Cowboys (+3500) LW: No. 17
Everything is lining up for Dallas to win the NFC East, yet it has lost badly to Tampa Bay and Green Bay in back-to-back weeks.
The Cowboys (2-4) have dropped to +3500 to win the Super Bowl, and their offense struggled in Week 6, which is not good since the team has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Dallas may win the NFC East by default, but it certainly isn't making it easy this season.
21. Atlanta Falcons (+7000) LW: No. 20
The Falcons fell behind big in Week 6 against Chicago, and they've now dropped back-to-back games to fall to 2-4.
There's a case that they're the second-best team in the NFC South, but that isn't saying much. Oddsmakers dropped Atlanta from +5000 to +7000 to win the Super Bowl this season.
22. New York Giants (+12500) LW: No. 21
The Giants lost in Week 6, but they have benefitted from Dallas and Philly losses in recent weeks to move into second in the odds to win the NFC East.
Plus, J.J. McCarthy looked pretty good in place of Jameis Winston in a near comeback against New Orleans. If there's something there, New York is at least alive in the worst division in the NFL.
23. Philadelphia Eagles (+9000) LW: No. 22
The Eagles' nightmare season continued with a fourth loss in a row against Carolina on Sunday.
Jalen Hurts (blood clot) is out indefinitely, and the Eagles have fallen from +4000 to +9000 to win the Super Bowl. Even if Hurts returns this season, the Eagles are facing a major uphill battle to get into the postseason.
24. Arizona Cardinals (+40000) LW: No. 30
It felt like Arizona's season was headed in a bad direction after four straight losses, and then it pulled off an upset win in the final seconds against the Rams on Sunday.
This Cardinals offense is good enough to hang around in games, and Mike LaFleur's team won't just lay down against some of the best teams in the league. That deserves some love, even though I don't think Arizona has a shot to make the playoffs.
25. New Orleans Saints (+15000) LW: No. 29
New Orleans nearly blew a three-possession lead against the New York Giants in Week 6, and this defense remains in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play.
I have a hard time trusting the Saints to compete in the NFC South, especially since the Panthers are looking more and more impressive on both sides of the ball each week.
26. New York Jets (+50000) LW: No. 25
Geno Smith and the Jets are now 2-4 after a loss to New England, and while they hung around in games, they haven't gained much respect in the betting market, falling from +30000 to +50000 to win the Super Bowl.
New York is favored in Week 7 against Miami in what is a must-win game if the Jets want to make a playoff push.
27. Indianapolis Colts (+12000) LW: No. 24
Daniel Jones has thrown more picks (six) than touchdowns (four) this season, and Indy lost as a seven-point favorite against Tennessee. At 2-4, the Colts don't look like a playoff team, especially with Houston rising with back-to-back wins.
The Colts dropped from +8000 to +12000 to win the Super Bowl after the shocking loss.
28. Washington Commanders (+15000) LW: No. 27
Washington is 1-3-1 straight up in the 2026 season, and it's a huge underdog on the road in Week 6 against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12500) LW: No. 26
Tampa Bay had a feel-good win against Dallas in Week 5, but it blew a 16-3 lead against Pittsburgh in Week 6 to lose in overtime.
Baker Mayfield seems to be nearing a return, but at 1-5, the Bucs are a playoff long shot, even in the NFC South.
30. Los Angeles Chargers (+50000) LW: No. 28
Another week, another Chargers loss.
L.A. is now 0-6 and has dropped from +20000 to +50000 to win the Super Bowl. Something has to change for a team that had Super Bowl hopes entering the season, and at some point Jim Harbaugh's job security comes into question.
There's no way anyone should consider the Chargers as a playoff team at this point in 2026.
31. Tennessee Titans (+100000) LW: No. 31
A strong defensive performance from the Titans helped them earn their first win of the season over the Indianapolis Colts. Still, this team remains in the basement in the odds to win the Super Bowl, and it's hard to trust the Titans to do much of anything with Cam Ward struggling at quarterback.
32. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 31
Malik Willis and the Dolphins were on the bye in Week 6, but they remain winless through five games. The Dolphins are anything but a playoff team in 2026.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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