NFL Wild Card Round Best Bets (Predictions for Packers vs. Bears, Bills vs. Jaguars)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for NFL Wild Card Weekend, including a pick for the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears matchup.

The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Jordan Love are favored on Saturday. / David Banks-Imagn Images

Welcome to the playoffs, NFL bettors!

After a long regular season filled with ups and downs -- and plenty of bad beats -- there's a little less football but a lot more at stake in the coming weeks.

So, the SI Betting is dishing out some picks for the six games on NFL Wild Card Weekend, which starts with two games on Saturday ends with a Monday night showdown between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Each week, SI’s Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan share their favorite bets for Sunday’s games every week, and we're coming off four straight perfect weeks after nailing two of the biggest matchups in Week 18.

Dewey took the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday night against the San Francisco 49ers while MacMillan won his bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers as home dogs against the Baltimore Ravens.

There's no better time to be red hot than heading into the playoffs, but can we keep the momentum rolling?

This week, we're eyeing one favorite and a home underdog to advance to the divisional round.

Here's a breakdown for each of these picks, and their latest odds, for the first round of playoff action this NFL season.

NFL Best Bets for Wild Card Round

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.

• Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey
• Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-105) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey

There are few home underdogs in the wild card round of the playoffs, and there is one that I love as a potential upset pick. 

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are equipped to pull off a small upset at home against the Buffalo Bills, as they’ve been one of the best teams in the NFL over the second half of the season.

Betting against Josh Allen may not be a popular pick, but he’s just 5-8 against the spread in the playoffs in his career, and I don’t think Buffalo has the better all-around team in this matchup. 

This season, the Bills are 31st in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and the Jacksonville offense has been rolling over this eight-game winning streak, scoring 34 points against an elite Denver defense. That puts a lot of pressure on the Buffalo offense to be near perfect in this game. 

The Jaguars went 7-1 in true home games (they played a “home” game in London) this season, and I’m not going to blindly bet on Allen when he has the inferior defense and inferior pass-catching weapons in this game.

Buffalo is a trendy Super Bowl pick, but I think Jacksonville could be the team that comes out of the AFC. I’ll take the points in this matchup on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-105) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

I've claimed the Chicago Bears are the most fraudulent team all season long, and I'd be a hypocrite if I didn't bet against them in the opening round of the playoffs, so that's exactly what I'm going to do. 

The Bears' underlying numbers should concern the Chicago faithful. 

They rank just 21st in the NFL in net yards per play, 16th in total DVOA, and 26th in opponent success rate. 

They have fought to their strong record by winning the turnover battle and getting late-game variance to sway in their favor, but that method of winning is unsustainable once you reach the playoffs.

The Green Bay Packers are healthier than they've been in weeks, and outrank the Bears in almost every metric. Their postseason experience should also be able to do wonders against a team full of players making their playoff debut. 

I think the Packers win this one comfortably.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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