Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State Prediction, Odds for Horizon League Championship Semifinal

The Northern Kentucky Norse are in the midst of an impressive run in the Horizon League Tournament, beating No. 4 Oakland and No. 5 Green Bay en route to a semifinal matchup against the No. 1 seed, Wright State.

The Wright State Raiders won the regular season championship in the Horizon League, but at 15-5 in conference play, they are far from unbeatable.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for tonight's Horizon League semifinal.

Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Northern Kentucky +1.5 (-112)
Wright State -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Northern Kentucky +104
Wright State -125

Total

OVER 157.5 (-105)
UNDER 157.5 (-115)

Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 9
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: Corteva Coliseum
How to Watch (TV): ESPNU
Northern Kentucky Record: 20-13 (10-10 in Horizon League)
Wright State Record: 21-11 (15-5 in Horizon League)

Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State Betting Trends

Northern Kentucky 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
The OVER is 11-4 in Northern Kentucky's last 15 games
Northern Kentucky is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games played as an underdog
Wright State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games
The UNDER is 6-3 in Wright State's last nine games

Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State Key Player to Watch

TJ Burch, G - Wright State Raiders

Not only is TJ Burch averaging 11.8 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.4 rebounds per game, but he's also an extremely important player on defense, averaging 2.6 steals per game. That's good for the seventh most steals per game across Division I college basketball. He's going to play a key role in tonight's game.

Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State Prediction and Pick

I'm surprised Wright State isn't a bigger favorite. The Raiders are by far the better shooting team, ranking 57th in effective field goal percentage, far above Northern Kentucky, which ranks 98th in that metric.

Wright State is primarily a two-point shooting team, ranking 65th in the country in two-point shot rate, with 66.3% of its shots coming from two-point range. Now, they get to face Northern Kentucky team that ranks 255th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 53.5% from two-point range.

I'll back Wright State tonight.

Pick: Wright State -1.5 (-108)

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