Notre Dame vs Ohio State Public Betting Heavily Favors Irish to Pull Upset

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (center) hopes to lead the Irish to an upset over Ohio State. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Notre Dame is a massive underdog in its National Championship game against Ohio State tonight. Every sportsbook out there thinks the Buckeyes win and win big. 

However, the public betting on this game at BetMGM is heavily skewed towards the Irish pulling off the upset, though that might be a bad sign for its outcome. 

Notre Dame vs Ohio State National Championship Odds 

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook 

Spread 

• Ohio State -8.5 (-115)
• Notre Dame +8.5 (-105)

Moneyline 

• Ohio State -400 
• Notre Dame +310 

According to ESPN’s David Payne Purdum, Notre Dame has received 83% of the total moneyline bets at BetMGM, but the total money split is near 50-50. That means more people (the public) are betting on Notre Dame to upset Ohio State, but more money (sharps) is being bet on Ohio State to win outright. 

Based on Ohio State’s -400 moneyline odds (AKA who wins the game), the Buckeyes have an 80% implied probability of winning the game. Notre Dame’s +310 odds represent an implied probability of 24.39%. 

The odds are the same at most other sportsbooks as well. FanDuel Sportsbook has the same moneyline odds as BetMGM. DraftKings Sportsbook has the odds set at -375 for Ohio State and +295 for Notre Dame. If you think Notre Dame wins outright, BetMGM and FanDuel offer better odds than DraftKings.

Siding with the public doesn’t work out for bettors in the long run. Sportsbooks stay in business for a reason, and a big part of that is the public being wrong more times than not. Couple that with Notre Dame’s massive fanbase and the fact that the odds for them to win are long (and thus attractive for someone betting a smaller amount to win a larger amount) and you can understand why more bets are being placed on the Irish. 

SI college football betting insider Reed Wallach believes Ohio State wins and covers the -8.5-point spread. Below is one of the reasons he highlighted. You can read his full betting preview on the game here. 

The Buckeyes defense will keep a lid on this Notre Dame offense that remains limited. The group is outside the top 40 in EPA/Pass and if this team falls behind early, it’ll be tough sledding to get back in the game. 

Notre Dame will certainly have to play a perfect game or hope Ohio State implodes to pull off the upset. The public certainly appears to believe one or both will happen. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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