Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 12

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have a very winnable road matchup on Sunday afternoon, as they’ll take on the Dallas Mavericks, who are without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Dallas is 9-7 when Doncic sits this season, winning each of its last two games, but the Mavs have dropped down to fifth in the West (9.5 games back of OKC) after being in the mix for a top-two seed around Christmas Day. Since Christmas, the Mavs are just 3-5.

Jokic missed a pair of games with an illness earlier in the week, but he returned to put up 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists in a win over the Brooklyn Nets on Friday. With Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray both listed as questionable for this game, Jokic may have to do some more heavy lifting to beat the Mavs in Dallas.

Oddsmakers have set the Nuggets as road favorites in this matchup, but they are just 3-8 against the spread in that spot in the 2024-25 campaign.

Here’s how I’m wagering on this matchup, including a few prop picks, on Sunday.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Nuggets -5.5 (-112)
Mavericks +5.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Nuggets: -218
Mavericks: +180

Total

229.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nuggets vs. Mavericks How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Jan. 12
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center
How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Southwest, Altitude
Nuggets record: 22-15
Mavs record: 22-16

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Vlatko Cancar – out
DaRon Holmes II – out
PJ Hall – out
Spencer Jones – out
Aaron Gordon – questionable
Nikola Jokic – probable
Jamal Murray – questionable

Mavs Injury Report

Luka Doncic – out
Kyrie Irving – out
Dante Exum – out

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

The three-time league MVP is having a massive 2024-25 season, averaging 31.6 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game heading into Sunday’s matchup with Dallas.

Earlier this season, Jokic racked up 17 rebounds and 10 assists against the Mavs, and he’s cleared 22.5 rebounds and assists in 18 of his 32 games overall. The Mavs rank in the middle of the pack (16th) in both opponent rebounds and opponent assists per game.

I expect Jokic to stuff the stat sheet – especially if Gordon or Murray misses this contest.

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Quentin Grimes OVER 2.5 Assists (-166)

In today’s NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – I explained why Grimes is undervalued against this Denver defense:

With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving out once again on Sunday, guard Quentin Grimes should continue to see an expanded role in the Dallas offense.

Over his last seven games, Grimes has made two starts and is playing 29.3 minutes per game for Jason Kidd. That’s resulted in an uptick in scoring (16.3 points per game) and passing (4.4 assists per game).

Grimes has at least three dimes in all seven of those games, and now he’s facing a Denver team that ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent assists per game. It quite literally couldn’t be a better matchup for the Mavs guard on Sunday.

In this seven-game stretch, Grimes is averaging 7.4 potential assists per game. He should easily pick up three assists against this Denver defense.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Denver has struggled against the spread all season long, and I’m not sold on it covering on the road in this matchup – especially if Gordon or Murray ends up sitting out.

Dallas has not played great since Christmas, but it is still an over .500 team without Doncic, winning back-to-back games with both him and Irving sidelined.

The Mavs are also 2-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season, posting an averaging scoring margin of +8.0 points in those games.

Denver likely wins this game because of how great Jokic has been this season, but Dallas has the tools to keep this matchup close. Without Doncic (the last eight games), Dallas has the No. 12 defensive rating in the NBA even though it has dropped five of those eight matchups.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game come down to the wire in Dallas.

Pick: Mavericks +5.5 (-108)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.