Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 9

Part III of the Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder season series is set for Monday night, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are favored at home.

This game not only features the top two players in the odds to win the league’s MVP award (SGA and Nikola Jokic), but these squads are also No. 1 and No. 2 in the odds to win the NBA Finals out of the Western Conference.

OKC has beaten Denver twice this season, including an overtime matchup on Feb. 27 where the Thunder won in overtime in SGA’s return from an abdominal strain.

The Nuggets have slipped to the No. 6 seed in the West after a blowout loss to the New York Knicks on Friday night, but can they bounce back on the road?

There are a couple of key injuries in this game, as Jamal Murray (ankle) is questionable for Denver and Chet Holmgren (flu) is questionable for OKC.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, my prediction and a prop bet to consider for Monday’s Western Conference showdown.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets +6.5 (-105)
Thunder: -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Nuggets: +220
Thunder: -270

Total

231.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock/NBCSN
Nuggets record: 39-25
Thunder record: 50-15

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Jamal Murray – questionable
DaRon Holmes II – out
Curtis Jones – out
Peyton Watson – out
KJ Simpson – out

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber – out
Jalen Williams – out
Isaiah Hartenstein – out
Chet Holmgren – questionable
Alex Caruso – questionable
Branden Carlson – out

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-112)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is a great prop target against OKC:

Jokic has a favorable matchup on Monday against the Thunder, who rank 23rd in the NBA in rebound percentage and 24th in opponent rebounds per game.

The three-time league MVP had 17 rebounds in an overtime loss to OKC back on Feb. 27, and he has nine games with 13 or more boards since returning from a knee injury that kept him out for 16 games.

Now, OKC won’t have starting center Isaiah Hartenstein in this matchup and Chet Holmgren (flu, questionable) could sit out as well. The loss of Hartenstein should immediately open things up for Jokic on the glass, and he’s cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games (including playoffs) against OKC.

The star big man is averaging 12.5 rebounds on 19.9 rebound chances per game. That gives him a really solid floor against a team that remains average at best on the boards.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The Nuggets’ viability as an underdog in this matchup rests a lot on Murray’s status, but if he plays I think Denver is a must bet at this current price.

The Nuggets are 10 games over .500 on the road this season, and they have gone an impressive 9-2 against the spread as road underdogs. Denver’s net rating has slipped out of the top 10 in the league over its last 10 games, but a lot of that is due to a blowout loss to New York.

Now, Aaron Gordon is back for Denver, which should give it a boost (if Murray plays) when it comes to defending this OKC team.

The Thunder nearly lost to Golden State on Saturday with Jalen Williams, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein out, and at least Williams and Hartenstein will miss this game. OKC is just 14-17 against the spread when favored at home, and it needed overtime to beat a short-handed Denver team in their last meeting.

I lean with the Nuggets to at least cover in this game now that this spread is set outside two possessions.

Pick: Nuggets +6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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