Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, May 1

The New York Yankees have the best record in the American League heading into a weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles.

On Friday night, Will Warren (2.59 ERA) gets the ball against lefty Cade Povich, who is set to make his third appearance of the 2026 season. Povich has a 5.02 ERA for his career, and he could be in trouble against a New York offense that is fifth in OPS and ninth in runs scored so far this season.

The Orioles are 6-7 on the road and one game under .500 overall in the 2026 campaign, sitting five games behind New York in the AL East standings.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are just 8-5 at home and are looking to bounce back from a loss on Wednesday against the Texas Rangers.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop – which happens to be for Aaron Judge – and a prediction for Friday’s series opener.

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Orioles +1.5 (-136)
Yankees -1.5 (+113)

Moneyline

Orioles: +153
Yankees: -186

Total

8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Orioles vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Baltimore: Cade Povich (1-0, 2.19 ERA)
New York: Will Warren (3-0, 2.59 ERA)

Orioles vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 1
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, MASN, YES Network
Orioles record: 15-16
Yankees record: 20-11

Orioles vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+234)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Judge is a great bet against Povich:

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is starting to turn things around, hitting .300 with three homers over the last week (six games) heading into Friday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

Judge is taking on O’s lefty Cade Povich, who has not been able to slow him down in limited at-bats. Judge is 2-for-3 with two homers against Povich, and he has a 1.147 OPS against lefties in 2026.

Povich has struggled when it comes to the long ball in his MLB career, allowing one homer in two appearances in 2026 and 30 in 40 appearances in his career.

Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

New York is off to a fast start in 2026, and it has fared extremely well with Warren on the mound, going 5-1 in his six outings.

Warren has not allowed more than two earned runs in a single start, ranking in the 68th percentile in expected ERA (3.50) and the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage.

Meanwhile, Povich has a 4.58 ERA in four starts against the Yankees in his career, and I’m not buying his strong start to 2026 just yet.

The O’s and Yankees have similar bullpens in terms of ERA this season, but Baltimore has a slightly worse offense, ranking behind the Yankees in OPS, runs scored and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

I’ll back the Yankees to win this series opener. New York is 8-5 at home and has a 17-14 mark on the run line in 2026.

Pick:Yankees Moneyline (-186 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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