Padres vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, April 20

Sunday Night Baseball features an interesting matchup between the first-place San Diego Padres and the Houston Astros.

Houston is third in the AL West, but it is aiming to win a third game in a row with ace Framber Valdez set to take the mound on Sunday.

However, the Padres have one of their best starters – Dylan Cease – on the bump as he looks to turn around what has been a rough start to the 2025 campaign.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction on Sunday for this interleague matchup.

Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Padres +1.5 (-205)
Astros -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline

Padres: +110
Astros: -130

Total

7.5 (Over +105/Under -125)

Padres vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

San Diego: Dylan Cease (1-1, 6.64 ERA)
Houston: Framber Valdez (1-2, 4.91 ERA)

Padres vs. Astros How to Watch

Date: Sunday, April 20
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Daikin Park
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Padres record: 15-6
Astros record: 10-10

Padres vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Houston Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

Framber Valdez OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150)

This season, the Padres are in the top half of MLB in walks drawn, and now they get to face Framber Valdez, who is averaging 2.0 walks per game in the 2025 season.

While Valdez has only cleared this line in two of his four starts, he did have four walks in an outing earlier this season and has allowed at least 2.6 walks per nine innings in each of his last four seasons.

According to Statcast, is in just the 54th percentile in walk percentage and the 48th percentile in chase rate, so he’s not getting batters to bite outside of the zone as much as he’d like. I’ll back him to have two or more walks for the third time this season.

Padres vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the total is worth targeting for Sunday Night Baseball:

Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease will duel on Sunday night, and this game has an extremely low total at 7.5.

I think the OVER could be the play, as the Padres are one of the better offenses in MLB, ranking fourth in OPS this season.

While Houston is in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS, the Astros may be able to get to Cease, who has a 6.64 ERA in the 2025 season, Cease allowed nine runs in his third start of the campaign, and he’s given up at least three runs in three of his four starts.

Meanwhile, Valdez has been up and down in 2025, posting a 4.91 ERA. He has starts with five and seven runs allowed, so it’s hard to trust both of these pitchers to be lights out on Sunday night. Based on the latest odds, there’s a chance this total could move down to seven, giving bettors a more favorable price before first pitch.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (+105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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