Padres vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

Can the Blue Jays complete the sweep?

The Jays are home underdogs on Thursday. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays have outscored the San Diego Padres 17-0 in their series this week, and they have a chance to complete the sweep as home underdogs on Thursday.

Toronto has won six of its last 10 games, moving into second place in the AL East in the process. Meanwhile, the Padres have dropped five in a row and seven of their last 10 to drop into third in the ultra-competitive NL West.

Can San Diego get back on track on Thursday afternoon?

The Padres are favored in this game with Stephen Kolek on the mound against Bowden Francis, but the San Diego bats need to come to life if they want any chance of winning this game.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this interleague matchup. 

Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Padres -1.5 (+130)
• Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

• Padres: -130
• Blue Jays: +110

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -118)

Padres vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Stephen Kolek (2-1, 2.33 ERA)
• Toronto: Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.63 ERA)

Padres vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 22
• Time: 1:07 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SNET, SDPA
• Padres record: 27-20
• Blue Jays record: 24-24

 

Padres vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+205)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Fernando Tatis Jr. is worth a look on Thursday: 

This season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has already hit 12 home runs, and he’s been dominant against right-handed pitching.

Not only is the Padres slugger hitting .326 against righties with a .987 OPS, but 11 of his 12 long balls have come against them.

On Thursday, Tatis gets a crack at the Toronto Blue Jays and starter Bowden Francis, who has really struggled with limiting the long ball in 2025. Francis enters this outing with a 5.63 ERA, and he’s given up a whopping 14 home runs in nine starts.

So, any Padres player is worth a look in this game, as Francis has just two outings this season where he didn’t allow a home run. For comparison, the young righty has allowed multiple homers in four of his nine appearances.

Even at a shorter price of +205, Tatis is worth a look against the Jays this afternoon. 

Padres vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

This season, Toronto has the second-best record on the run line in MLB, going 29-19. 

Now, the Padres are right behind them at 27-20, but there are some serious concerns with San Diego’s recent play.

During this five-game losing streak, the Padres rank dead last in Major League Baseball in OPS, and they’ve slipped under .500 on the road.

Kolek is making just his fourth start of the season, and he was rocked by the Seattle Mariners in his last outing, allowing eight hits and five runs in five innings of work. After back-to-back shutdown outings against Colorado and Pittsburgh, Kolek struggled against a step up in competition.

Now, Francis hasn’t been good this season, allowing three or more earned runs in six of his nine starts, so I’m not going to be as bold as to take the Jays to win outright.

Still, it’s hard to trust this Padres offense given the run differential in this series. I’ll take the Jays to cover the run line as dogs on Thursday afternoon. 

Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-155 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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