Padres vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 23

The Braves are favorites against the Padres on Wednesday afternoon. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will treat us to a matinee matchup this afternoon.

The Braves are 2-1 through the first three games of the series, which means a win today will give them the series victory, or the Padres can tie the series if they can bounce back from last night's 7-6 loss.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for today's action.

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run line

• Padres +1.5 (+102)
• Braves -1.5 (-122)

Moneyline

• Padres +203
• Braves -251

Total

• OVER 8 (-108)
• UNDER 8 (-112)

Padres vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Griffin Canning, RHP (1-8, 6.67 ERA)
• Atlanta: Chris Sale, LHP (10-6, 2.06 ERA)

Padres vs. Braves How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 23
• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): Twins.TV presented by Progressive, Guardians.TV Presented by Progressive
• Padres record: 50-53
• Braves record: 54-49

Padres vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

• Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

I'm going to find a couple of different ways to fade Chris Sale in this game. Sure, he has a sparkling 2.06 ERA, but I expect to see at least some slight regression from him in the coming weeks. He has an xERA of 3.31 and an xBA of .228, which may indicate he hasn't pitched as well as you'd think when looking at his ERA. To try to target that regression, I'm going to bet on Fernando Tatis Jr. to record 2+ total bases. Tatis Jr. has a .299 batting average and an .879 OPS when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

Padres vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Griffin Canning gets the start for the Padres tonight, and he's been downright bad this season. He has a 6.67 ERA on the year, and what could be even worse is that this Braves lineup has a .348 batting average against Canning throughout his career. Atlanta should have no issue putting up some runs this afternoon.

With that being said, I'm also going to bank on some regression from Chris Sale, whose 3.31 xERA indicates we could see some regression from him in the coming weeks.

That's why, instead of laying the high price on the Braves, I'm going to bet the OVER and root for runs this afternoon.

Pick: OVER 8 (-108) via DraftKings

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