Padres vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 30

Zack Wheeler is an elite prop target on Monday night.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is a great prop target on Monday. / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies are both hoping to be playoff teams in the National League this season, and they have a major early-week series beginning on Monday evening.

Philly holds a 1.5-game lead in the NL East over the New York Mets, while the Padres have slipped to seven games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West despite being in second place. 

Los Angeles appears to be poised to run away with the best record in the National League, as it already has 53 wins and no other NL team has 50. 

In this series opener, the Padres will send knuckleballer Matt Waldron to the mound for the first time in the 2025 season. He finished last season with a 4.91 ERA in 27 games (26 starts), and he’ll have a tough opponent on Monday.

Not only are the Phillies a top 10 team in MLB in OPS and batting average, but they are also sending their ace – Zack Wheeler – to the mound in this matchup.

Wheeler has led the Phils to an 11-5 record in the 2025 season and has a 2.45 ERA. 

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including a player prop to bet for Wheeler on Monday night. 

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Padres +1.5 (-112)
• Phillies -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Padres: +183
• Phillies: -227

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -119)

Padres vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Matt Waldron (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (7-3, 2.45 ERA)

Padres vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 30
• Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, NBCS-PH, SDPA
• Padres record: 45-38
• Phillies record: 49-35

Padres vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-165)

Arguably my favorite prop bet for the day is in this matchup, as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has been elite when it comes to keeping hitters off the basepaths in 2025. I shared in today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI how bettors should target the All-Star starter in this matchup: 

This player prop is a no-brainer on Monday night, especially since the San Diego Padres rank just 21st in MLB in hits so far in 2025. 

Zack Wheeler has allowed five or fewer hits in 14 of his 16 starts this season, and he has not allowed more than four hits in a single game since the start of May.

Overall, the Phillies ace has a 0.92 WHIP and a 2.45 ERA in the 2025 season. His advanced numbers are great as well, with Wheeler ranking in the 97th percentile in expected ERA (2.34) and the 96th percentile in expected batting average against (.195) so far this season.

He is in a great spot to keep his streak of allowing five or fewer hits going. Wheeler has given up just 66 hits in 99 innings of work in 2025.  

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

If you’re going to bet on this matchup, I recommend the Wheeler prop over taking a side since the odds are so heavily juiced towards Philadelphia, but there is an interesting trend to look at when it comes to the full game odds.

The Padres are one of the best teams in MLB on the run line this season (46-37), and they’ve gone an impressive 22-11 on the run line as road underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are just 14-19 on the run as home favorites, and they have even struggled a bit in Wheeler’s starts. Despite an 11-5 record when Wheeler is on the mound, Philly has won by two or more runs just eight times. That means that the Phils are 8-8 when it comes to winning by two or more when Wheeler starts.

Waldron can be a tough pitcher to face because of his knuckleball, and the Padres do have an elite bullpen (3.36 ERA, fifth in MLB) that may be able to keep them in this game.

I lean with betting on San Diego to cover in this series opener. 

Pick: Padres +1.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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