Patrick Mahomes Is Currently the Worst Quarterback to Bet on in NFL

Brian Giuffra | 2 Minutes Ago

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the worst ATS record among QBs over the last 24 games. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are struggling like we’ve never seen before, and bettors are paying the price. 

The Chiefs are currently 6-7 straight up this season. Mahomes is completing a career-low 63.1% of his passes and has 10 interceptions, four away from his career-high with four games to go. He has 22 TD passes (four below his career low at this point) and the Chiefs are currently two games behind in the loss column for the final Wild Card spot. Tiebreakers work against them with three teams ahead of them.

This would be the first time Mahomes misses the playoffs as a starter. 

Worse for bettors, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been terrible against the spread over the last two seasons. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 9-17 against the spread in their last 21 games (including the postseason) and just 4-11 ATS against teams with a winning record, according to Evan Abrams. 

Both of those marks are the worst in the NFL over that time span. 

The Chiefs are 5-7-1 ATS this season, including losing seven games as an outright favorite. They were 9-11 ATS last season. That’s an ATS win record of 43.75%. You’re losing a lot of money if you’re backing the Chiefs blindly ATS. 

The Chiefs opened Week 15 as -5.5 point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook against the Chargers. The Chiefs are 4-2-1 ATS at home this season, but it’s hard to trust them to cover in any situation right now. 

The Chiefs have lost four out of five outright, failing to cover the spread in all four of their loses. In their one win over that time, they failed to cover against the Colts, pushing as a -3 point favorite. Yes, they’re 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.  

The Chiefs face the Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders to finish the season. They will likely be betting favorites in every game except the Broncos as long as Mahomes stays healthy.

They’ll likely need to go undefeated down the stretch to have a chance at making the playoffs. Even if they go 4-0 on the moneyline, it doesn’t mean they’ll cover in those games. In fact, it’s fair to fade them, and Mahomes, in the betting market until further notice. 

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