Patriots vs. Broncos Odds Movement: Total Rising in AFC Title Game Despite Bo Nix Injury

Only one team will have its starting quarterback in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, but that hasn't stopped the total for the New England Patriots-Denver Broncos matchup from rising.

Denver quarterback Bo Nix is out for the season with a broken ankle that he suffered in the team's divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills, setting up former Patriot quarterback Jarrett Stidham to start. Despite that, oddsmakers have moved the total in this game by two points since the odds came out for this matchup on Sunday night.

At DraftKings, the total for the AFC title game opened at 40.5, but it has since moved to 42.5 with the OVER set at -108 odds and the UNDER at -112. Based on the latest betting splits from DK, 57 percent of the bets on the total in this game have come in on the OVER, which has likely caused the move in the odds.

Denver and New England both had fairly strong offensive showings in the divisional round, but it's hard to expect a similar performance from the Broncos with Nix out of the lineup. Denver's defense also allowed 30 points in the divisional round against Buffalo, and it's possible oddsmakers are expecting the Patriots to run away with this game since they have the more proven offense with Drake Maye under center.

New England is a 5.5-point favorite in this matchup, and 79 percent of the spread bets made on DraftKings for this game have come in on the Pats.

So far this season, the OVER has hit in 12 of the Patriots' 19 games (including playoffs), although the under hit in their first playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver, which hit the OVER in its lone playoff matchup this season, has hit the UNDER more often (10 times) across 18 games.

It's possible that there will be more movement to the total ahead of Sunday's kickoff, but the recent movement may not be a great thing for Denver. The Broncos likely want this to be a low-scoring game since they have Stidham under center, and any steam towards the OVER could signal a potential Patriots blowout.

New England is heavily favored to win this game and make the Super Bowl while the Broncos (+1100 to win the Super Bowl) have the worst odds to win it all this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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