Patriots vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 12 (Bet This Crazy Dolphins Trend)

The Miami Dolphins are home favorites in Week 12 against the New England Patriots as they try to extend their winning streak to three games.

Miami is still in the mix for a playoff spot despite a slow start, mainly due to the team’s improved play with Tua Tagovailoa back in action since missing four games with a concussion.

On the Patriots side, they’re just 3-8 overall after losing to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11. Quarterback Drake Maye has put together some solid showings, but does he have enough help to lead the Pats to a win this week?

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup, which will hopefully give bettors an idea of which side – or a total – to bet on Sunday.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Patriots +7.5 (-115)
Dolphins -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Patriots: +320
Dolphins: -410

Total

46 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Patriots are just 4-6-1 against the spread this season while the Dolphins have a 3-3 record straight up when Tua Tagovailoa starts this season – and they're 3-2 in games that he’s finished.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan found an insane Dolphins trend against the Patriots that makes this game a must bet:

In the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots covered the first game, beating the Dolphins 21-11 on September 13, but have since failed to cover in eight straight games including losing seven of them. The only time the Patriots managed to squeak by the Dolphins was a New Years Day game in 2023.

Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread against the Patriots in his career. He was inactive in their Week 16 loss to them on New Years Day of 2023 but also wasn't active in their win against them earlier in 2024.

Now, he has a chance to improve to 7-0 against the Patriots on Sunday and if they can cover the touchdown spread, the Dolphins cover streak will improve to 9-0 against the former kings of the AFC East.

With the Dolphins on a roll, winning two games in a row, I don’t mind taking them to cover the spread – even though they’re heavy favorites.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Patriots 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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