Pelicans vs. Kings Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 5

Two teams in the bottom three in the Western Conference standings square off on Thursday night, as the New Orleans Pelicans hit the road to play the Sacramento Kings.

After winning four games in a row, the Pelicans have lost back-to-back games to the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, even though Zion Williamson (ankle) returned from a one-game absence to face the Lakers on Tuesday.

Still, New Orleans is favored against a tanking Kings team that has the worst record in the Western Conference and has already shut down De’Andre Hunter, Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine for the rest of the 2025-26 season.

New Orleans doesn’t have an incentive to tank right now, as it doesn’t own its first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. So, should bettors trust the Pels to earn a road win on Thursday?

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite prop target and a prediction for this Western Conference showdown.

Pelicans vs. Kings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Pelicans -5.5 (-115)
Kings +5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Pelicans: -218
Kings: +180

Total

234.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pelicans vs. Kings How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 5
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports California, FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Pelicans record: 19-44
Kings record: 14-49

Pelicans vs. Kings Injury Reports

Pelicans Injury Report

Trey Murphy III – questionable
Zion Williamson – questionable
Trey Alexander – out
Dejounte Murray – out
Hunter Dickinson – out
Josh Oduro – out

Kings Injury Report

Zach LaVine – out
Domantas Sabonis – out
Keegan Murray – out
De’Andre Hunter – out
Dylan Cardwell – out

Pelicans vs. Kings Best NBA Prop Bet

Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bet

Trey Murphy III OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+102)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why Murphy is worth a look against this Sacramento defense:

This season, New Orleans Pelicans star Trey Murphy III is shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range on 8.6 attempts per game, averaging over three made 3-pointers per game. He’s listed as questionable for Thursday’s game against the Sacramento Kings, but I think he’s worth a look in this prop market.

The Kings have struggled to defend the 3-ball in the 2025-26 season, ranking 17th in opponent 3s made per game and 25th in opponent 3-point percentage. That makes this a solid matchup for Murphy, who shot 5-for-11 from 3-point range in a matchup with the Kings in February.

Since Feb. 1 (seven games), Murphy has been lights out from beyond the arc, recording multiple games with four or more made 3-pointers while shooting 47.9 percent from deep on over 10 attempts per game.

The Kings are one of the worst defenses in the league (28th in defensive rating), so I wouldn’t be shocked if Murphy has a big game on Thursday night.

Pelicans vs. Kings Prediction and Pick

I don’t trust either of these teams to cover the spread on Thursday, especially if Williamson or Murphy end up sitting for New Orleans.

The Kings are downright awful right now, posting a net rating of -12.5 over their last 15 games, and they’re down multiple key rotation players for the rest of the season. That’s contributed to them ranking 26th in the league in offensive rating over that 15-game stretch.

New Orleans has been a little better (17th in offensive rating over its last 15 games), but if Murphy and/or Williamson sit, that is going to take a hit.

The UNDER has actually hit in the majority of the Pelicans’ road games and the majority of the Kings’ home games this season, and that’s where I’m leaning with this total all the way up at 234.5.

The Kings have scored less than 105 points in three of their last four meetings, and another game like that would almost guarantee an UNDER on Thursday night.

Pick: UNDER 234.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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