Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sky-Dream, Lynx-Mercury)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Wednesday, July 16 – the final day before the All-Star break.

The Minnesota Lynx and forward Napheesa Collier are looking to close out the first half of the season with a win as home favorites. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Before the WNBA breaks for the All-Star Game on Saturday, the league is treating us to a massive slate of games on Wednesday, July 16: 

• Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky
• Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm
• Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
• Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings

Three of these games will take place in the afternoon, as the Dream-Sky matchup tips at 12 p.m. EST, the Mercury-Lynx game tips at 1 p.m. EST, and the Valkyries-Storm clash tips at 3 p.m. EST.

That gives bettors a chance to bet on and enjoy the WNBA action all day long, and I’m here with a pair of best bets to help you get that done.

After a slow start to the season, yours truly has turned things around ahead of the All-Star break, and a positive year is still in play if the second half of the season goes well. On Wednesday, I’m eyeing a pair of spread bets to close out the first half of the 2025 season. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 34-40 (-1.33 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 118-114 (+3.13 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chicago Sky +8.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Dream
• Minnesota Lynx -8 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Chicago Sky +8.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Dream

The Chicago Sky have played just nine home games in the 2025 season, but they are 4-5 in those games and just 3-9 on the road.

Chicago enters this matchup off of a loss to the Lynx, but it has played much better as of late, winning four of its last nine games to move ahead of a few teams in the standings. The Sky still has one of the worst net ratings in the W, but they are solid against the spread this season, going 12-9.

After a strong start ATS to begin the season, the Dream have come back to earth and sit at 11-10 ATS and 12-9 straight up this season.

With Rhyne Howard out for the rest of the month with a knee injury, the Dream could end up taking a small step back, especially on offense.

The Sky are a tough team to trust when looking at their overall numbers (12th in net rating, 11th in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating), but they’ve been close to a .500 team at home.

Minnesota Lynx -8 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury have been without Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper for multiple games in a row, and it’s hard to see either player returning to action on Wednesday night.

That’s led to oddsmakers setting the Lynx as sizable favorites in their final game ahead of the All-Star break. 

I love Minnesota to win and cover in this matchup, even though it lost by eight in Phoenix to Alyssa Thomas and company on July 9. The Mercury didn’t have Sabally or Copper in that game, but it took a near triple-double from Thomas to get a win.

Even with the Mercury pulling off a one-point win over the Golden State Valkyries on Monday, I don’t think they’re nearly as dangerous if Sabally and Copper sit.

Minnesota remains a perfect 11-0 at home in regular-season games, and it’s covered the spread in 13 of 23 appearances in 2025. I like the Lynx to protect home court and enter the break on a high note, as they do have the best net rating and record in the W so far this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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