PGA Championship Score Predictions: Forecasting the Winning Total at Quail Hollow

The best golfers in the world tee it up at Quail Hollow at this week's PGA Championship.

You can find my best bets for this week’s major in my full betting preview, but in this article I’m going to take things a step further. Anyone can predict who the winner is going to be, but I’m going to get bold and predict the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list. Let’s dive into it.

PGA Championship score prediction

All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

PGA Championship winning score prediction: -16

Justin Thomas won this event at Quail Hollow at 8 under in 2017, but I think we’re going to see a significantly lower score this time around. We have seen a significant amount of rain all week, which is going to soften the course and make it prime for scoring by the time the tournament tees off.

We have seen low scores before at Quail Hollow with Rory McIlroy winning the Wells Fargo Championship here at 17 under and Wyndham Clark winning it at 19 under. We expect them to make the course more difficult for a major championship, but they can only do so much to combat this week’s rain.

Scottie Scheffler (+450) score prediction: -12

Scottie Scheffler is going to once again be in the mix at a major championship, but he has one thing working against him compared to some of the other top names on the odds list—the fact he has never teed it up at Quail Hollow in an individual event. The only time he played this course was at the 2022 Presidents Cup, where he played to a 0–3–1 record.

On the bright side, he’s coming off his best performance of the season at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. With that being said, I think he’ll ultimately fall short on the weekend.

Rory McIlroy (+450) score prediction: -15

I think we’re in for yet another Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau showdown. It’s impossible to count out a golfer who is fresh off a major championship, returning to a course where he’s won four times in his career. I would be shocked if he’s not in contention on Sunday, but will he be able to finish the job in the final round?

Bryson DeChambeau (+700) score prediction: -16

If you read my betting preview, you know that DeChambeau is my best bet to win this week. Quail Hollow is all about driving the golf ball, and no golfer on the planet is better off the tee than DeChambeau. He’s also in peak form, coming into this event off a win at LIV Korea. In what might just be the rubber match between DeChambeau and McIlroy, I think last year’s U.S. Open winner will come out on top.

Jon Rahm (+1800) score prediction: -11

If you told me Jon Rahm was going to win this week, I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s a fantastic course fit and he’s played strong golf all season, including a solid finish at the Masters after a disappointing first round. With that being said, the one thing missing from his record in 2025 is a win, which may be enough to hold him back when things get tight on the weekend.

Justin Thomas (+2000) score prediction: -8

I’m not as high on Justin Thomas as many others. There’s no arguing he’s played some great golf this season and returns to a course where he won the PGA Championship in 2017. My counterargument to Thomas’s backers is that he has posted just one top-10 finish at a major since winning the 2022 PGA Championship. A win at the RBC Heritage isn’t enough for me to consider him as much of a contender as the four golfers listed with shorter odds.

Xander Schauffele (+2200) score prediction: -6

Xander Schauffele’s game is close since returning from his rib injury, but the one part of his game that’s yet to come back is his driving. He has lost strokes with his driving in three of his last four starts. That could cost him at Quail Hollow, where driving is paramount.

Collin Morikawa (+2200) score prediction: Missed Cut

My bold call amongst the top golfers is that Collin Morikawa will miss the cut. He’s one of the best iron players in the world, but his lack of distance off the tee could cost him at Quail Hollow. He ranks just 156th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, meaning he’s going to be playing behind the 8 ball compared to the other top contenders this week. He’s also had some questionable results lately, including a T54 finish at the RBC Heritage, a course that should have fit his style of play perfectly.

Ludvig Åberg (+2500) score prediction: -7

In theory, this course is a dream set up for Ludvig Åberg, but he’s entering this week’s tournament in horrific form. He finished T54 at the RBC Heritage and then dead last at last week’s Truist Championship. His driving ability will be enough to help him make the cut and post a few birdies on the weekend, but he’ll never truly be in the mix in this tournament.

Joaquin Niemann (+3300) score prediction: -10

Joaquin Niemann is once again the hipster pick at a major. He was a popular dark horse at the Masters this year as well, but played to a disappointing T29 finish. Now, he’ll tee it up at a Quail Hollow course that should fit his game well, but the Chilean has never finished inside the top 15 at a major throughout his career. Until I see him contend in a big event, I’m not going to give him much of a look.

Patrick Cantlay (+4000) score prediction: -12

Patrick Cantlay may be hovering around the top of the leaderboard on the weekend. He’s long off the tee and he’s coming into this event with some fantastic ball-striking form. He was third in the field in strokes-gained approach, gaining +1.38 strokes per round with his irons. If he can carry that form into this week, he could surprise some folks.

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