Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, June 25

The Washington Nationals are looking to salvage a split against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night, but they are underdogs with Cade Cavalli on the mound.

Cavalli (4.07 ERA) has been solid for the Nats in the 2026 season, but he has a tough matchup with Cristopher Sanchez (1.80 ERA), who has been one of the best pitchers in MLB in 2026.

The Phillies have won back-to-back games after losing the series opener between these division rivals, and they’re 11-5 with Sanchez on the mound in 2026.

So, how should bettors wager on Game 4 on Thursday?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this NL East battle.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (-105)
Nationals +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Phillies: -174
Nationals: +143

Total

8.5 (Over -111/Under -108)

Phillies vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Cristopher Sanchez (9-3, 1.80 ERA)
Washington: Cade Cavalli (4-4, 4.07 ERA)

Phillies vs. Nationals How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 25
Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Nationals Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Nationals.TV
Phillies record: 44-36
Nationals record: 41-40

Phillies vs. Nationals Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Cristopher Sanchez UNDER 20.5 Outs Recorded (-123)

In today’s MLB best bets column, I broke down why bettors should fade Sanchez at this number:

Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, posting a 1.80 ERA across 16 starts.

Despite that, I think his outs recorded prop is a little too high on Thursday night.

For Sanchez to clear this line, he’d need to complete seven innings against a Washington offense that is one of the best in baseball. The Nationals rank:

Fifth in wRC+
First in runs scored
Fourth in OPS
11th in batting average
Fourth in homeruns

Plus, Washington chased Sanchez after 5.1 innings back in April, picking up four hits and four walks against the Phillies star.

Sanchez has completed seven innings in seven of his 16 starts this season, though those all came in a row from May into early June. He’s failed to clear this line in back-to-back outings, and I think this number is a little high against such an elite scoring offense.

Sanchez can still have a really strong start and fail to clear this outs recorded prop on Thursday.

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Washington is the best team on the run line in MLB this season, going 50-31, covering over 61 percent of the time.

In this series, the Nationals have an upset win and a one-run loss, allowing them to cover in two of the three games.

On the other side, the Phillies are the worst run line team in MLB, going 30-50 in 2026. So, I don’t mind taking the cushion in this matchup, even with Sanchez on the mound for the Phils.

Washington lost by one run in 10 innings the last time it faced the Phillies’ lefty, and Cavalli has pitched pretty well in 2026, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. While the Nationals are just 6-10 with Cavalli on the mound, they have four losses by one run in his starts.

Washington’s offense scores more than anyone else in MLB, and it should be able to at least hang around in this game, especially once the Phillies turn to their bullpen (3.99 ERA).

I’ll take the cushion on the run line with the Nats at home with a chance to split this series.

Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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