Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 26

The Philadelphia Phillies picked up a nice road win on Monday in their series opener against the San Diego Padres, and they’re now set as slight underdogs in Game 2 on Tuesday night.

Philadelphia got off to a slow start in the 2026 season, but it’s now back to .500 and in third in the NL East.

Meanwhile, San Diego is one of the more confusing teams in MLB. The Padres’ offense has struggled all season long, and they have a run differential of just plus-3 through 53 games. Yet, San Diego is nine games over .500.

The Padres will look to add to that on Tuesday with righty Randy Vasquez (2.96 ERA) on the mound against Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (6.04 ERA). It’s been a rough season for Nola, yet the Phillies have found a way to win three of his four starts so far in May.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the second game of this series between two playoff hopefuls in the National League.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Phillies -1.5 (+156)
Padres +1.5 (-190)

Moneyline

Phillies: -105
Padres: -114

Total

7.5 (Over -110/Under -109)

Phillies vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (2-4, 6.04 ERA)
San Diego: Randy Vasquez (5-2, 2.96 ERA)

Phillies vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 26
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Padres.TV
Phillies record: 27-27
Padres record: 31-22

Phillies vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Gavin Sheets to Hit a Home Run (+566)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why Sheets is a great bet against Aaron Nola:

San Diego Padres slugger Gavin Sheets has been red hot as of late, hitting .389 with an OPS of 1.261 over the last two weeks (12 games), and he’s undervalued at +566 to leave the yard against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philly has Aaron Nola on the mound on Tuesday night, and the veteran right-hander has struggled this season, posting a 6.04 ERA while allowing nine home runs in 10 starts. Nola has faced Sheets three times in his career, giving up a double, but he hasn’t allowed a homer.

This season, Sheets has crushed right-handed pitching, hitting all nine of his homers against righties while posting a .266 batting average and .902 OPS.

Even though he’s been on a hot streak, Sheets is priced pretty favorably on Tuesday night.

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Even though both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored, I think the OVER is the play with this pitching matchup.

Nola has given up 13 runs over his last three starts, and he’s allowed at least three runs in seven of his 10 outings in the 2026 season. The veteran right-hander has an expected ERA of 4.77 and ranks in the 19th percentile amongst all pitchers in expected batting average against.

And, somehow, Randy Vasquez’s advanced numbers are worse.

Vasquez ranks in the 13th percentile in expected ERA (5.44), 12th percentile in expected batting average against (.279), the eight percentile in barrel percentage and the 17th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

That simply isn’t going to cut it, even though his actual ERA is 2.96 this season. Vasquez has also still allowed three or more runs in four of his 10 starts.

I think this total is a little too low given the pitching matchup on Tuesday night.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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