Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 3

A major NL Central series begins on Monday night, as the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to climb back into the mix for a wild card spot against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh is just 3-7 in its last 10 games and has fallen under .500 for the 2026 season, putting it 3.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the NL.

The Brewers, on the other hand, are viewed as a lock to make the playoffs, as they have the best record in baseball and a 6.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the division. Milwaukee has yet to make a major move ahead of Monday’s trade deadline, but it is set up pretty well to at least compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the National League.

On Monday, right-hander Brandon Sproat will get the ball for the Brew Crew as he looks to improve upon a 5.05 ERA this season. Sproat has lowered his ERA from 6.24 to 5.05 since June 1, but he has a long way to go if the Brewers are going to trust him in high-leverage spots in the postseason.

The Pirates will counter with right-hander Bubba Chandler (4.56 ERA), who has led the team to a 7-14 record in 21 appearances this season. The Pirates did win his last start against the Brewers back on July 11, but he lasted just 4.2 innings in that matchup.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Monday’s series opener.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates +1.5 (-168)
Brewers -1.5 (+139)

Moneyline

Pirates: +123
Brewers: -149

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Pirates vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.56 ERA)
Milwaukee: Brandon Sproat (3-6, 5.05 ERA)

Pirates vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 3
Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/Brewers.TV
Pirates record: 56-57
Brewers record: 69-42

Pirates vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Bubba Chandler OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+128)

This season, the Brewers have drawn the second-most walks in MLB (460), and they worked three walks against Chandler in just 4.2 innings back on July 11.

Chandler has struggled a bit with his command this season, averaging 2.7 walks per game (57 in just over 104 innings of work). He ranks in the 11th percentile amongst MLB pitchers in walk percentage.

There is a little risk that the Pirates right-hander doesn’t work deep enough into the game to clear this prop, but Chandler still has three or more walks allowed in 10 of his 21 outings in 2026.

Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

I’m not going to pass up a chance to bet on the Brewers at -149 to win at home against a team that is under .500 and reeling since the All-Star break.

Milwaukee is 16 games over .500 at home, and it has been serviceable in Sproat’s starts, going 10-10. Since the start of June, the Brewers right-hander has started to turn things around, posting a 3.71 ERA in nine outings (Milwaukee is 5-4 in those games) while allowing just 35 hits across 43.2 innings of work.

It’s not great, but Sproat has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 outings.

That gives him a pretty solid floor, and the Brewers certainly have the offense to compete with the Pirates, who have one of the better attacks in MLB:

MLB Offense Rankings

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

Pirates: 106 (5th)
Brewers: 104 (6th)

OPS

Pirates: .751 (4th)
Brewers: .736 (7th)

Runs Scored

Pirates: 578 (2nd)
Brewers: 555 (5th)

Batting Average

Pirates: .258 (2nd)
Brewers: .253 (5th)

The difference is the Brewers have the second-best team ERA in MLB while the Pirates clock in at 20th.

Chandler has been fine in the 2026 season, ranking in the 53rd percentile in expected ERA and the 72nd percentile in expected BAA, but it’s hard to look past the fact that Pittsburgh has lost two-thirds of his outings. Plus, the Pirates bullpen (4.34 ERA) is by far the lesser unit in this matchup.

I think this is a buy-low spot for the Brewers at home, especially if Sproat exits with the game tied or Milwaukee ahead.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-149 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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