Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for May 6 (How to Bet on Paul Skenes on Tuesday)

Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates are aiming to snap a five-game losing streak on Tuesday night against the St. Louis Cardinals in a battle between the two worst teams in the NL Central.

Skenes has been awesome in the 2025 season, posting a 2.74 ERA, but the Pirates’ offense has been so bad that it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins. The Cardinals will send a youngster of their own – lefty Matthew Liberatore – to the mound on May 6.

Can the Pirates, who are favored on the road, take this divisional battle?

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my game prediction.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Pirates -1.5 (+140)
Cardinals +1.5 (-166)

Moneyline

Pirates: -125
Cardinals: +105

Total

7 (Over -118/Under -102)

Pirates vs. Cardinals Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (3-2, 2.74 ERA)
St. Louis: Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 3.44 ERA)

Pirates vs. Cardinals How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 6
Time: 7:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Busch Stadium
How to Watch (TV): FDSMW, SportsNet PT
Pirates record: 12-24
Cardinals record: 17-19

Pirates vs. Cardinals Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)

While Skenes is one of the best strikeout pitchers in MLB, he only has three starts (in seven total appearances) where he’s struck out seven or more batters this season.

This is a tough matchup for the Pirates' righty, as the Cardinals are averaging just 7.58 strikeouts per game – sixth in MLB. I don’t love the idea of fading Skenes, but this line is a little too high for my liking against this tough St. Louis offense that is second in MLB in batting average in 2025.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

This game features one of my favorite bets of the day, which I shared in today’s Walk-Off Wagers for SI Betting:

This season, Skenes has just a 2.74 ERA, and he’s been even more impressive when it comes to limiting baserunners, posting a 0.91 WHIP.

He has a tough matchup on Tuesday against a St. Louis Cardinals team that is No. 2 in MLB in batting average, but the Cardinals are just outside the top 10 in runs scored. I think that Skenes can keep the Cardinals in check and make this a low-scoring game in the early innings.

Pittsburgh’s offense has been stuck in mud all season long, ranking 27th in runs scored and 28th in OPS. So, Pittsburgh may have a tough time against Liberatore, who is off to a strong start in 2025, posting a 3.44 ERA and 2.34 FIP in his six outings.

Both Skenes and Liberatore have just one start this season where they’ve given up more than three earned runs. As long as the Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle, I think this game goes UNDER the first five innings total with Skenes on the bump.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-175 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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