Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 19

After an off day on Monday, the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game series in St. Louis on Tuesday night.

The Cardinals are eight games over .500 this season and are just one game out of first place in the NL Central heading into tonight’s matchup. In fact, they’re favored at home to win this game, which could give them a chance to move up into the No. 2 spot in the division depending upon the result of the Milwaukee vs. Chicago game.

Pittsburgh is also over .500 in 2026, but it is 4.5 games back of the top spot in the division. The Pirates have righty Mitch Keller on the mound in this series opener as they look to bounce back from Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cards counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has some concerning advanced numbers despite a 4.40 actual ERA in 2026.

So, how should we bet on this series opener?

I have a total and a player prop that I’m eyeing in this matchup, but first let’s take a look at the latest odds.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Pirates -1.5 (+158)
Cardinals +1.5 (-193)

Moneyline

Pirates: -102
Cardinals: -118

Total

8 (Over -112/Under -108)

Pirates vs. Cardinals Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (4-2, 3.59 ERA)
St. Louis: Matthew Liberatore (2-2, 4.40 ERA)

Pirates vs. Cardinals How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 19
Time: 7:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Busch Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Cardinals.TV/MLB.TV
Pirates record: 24-23
Cardinals record: 27-19

Pirates vs. Cardinals Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Bryan Reynolds to Hit a Home Run (+565)

Bryan Reynolds hasn’t been a major power source for Pittsburgh in 2026, but he has some favorable splits against Liberatore, making him an interesting home run bet on Tuesday:

Pittsburgh Pirates switch hitter Bryan Reynolds has just four home runs in the 2026 season, which is why he’s priced at north of 5/1 to go deep on Tuesday night.

However, Reynolds is hitting .292 over the last week, and he’s showcased more power against left-handed pitching in the 2026 season. Reynolds has two homers and an .813 OPS against lefties this season, putting him in a solid spot against St. Louis Cardinals lefty Matthe Liberatore.

This season, Liberatore has allowed nine home runs in nine appearances, posting a 4.40 ERA in the process. Reynolds has crushed the young lefty in his career, going 4-for-12 with a double and a home run.

So, I don’t mind taking a swing on Reynolds on the road on Tuesday night.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

The OVER has hit in 54.4 percent of the Pirates’ games this season, and I think this pitching matchup sets up well for another high-scoring affair.

Keller has a 3.59 ERA, but he ranks in the 42nd percentile in expected ERA (4.25) in the 2026 season. Liberatore has been even worse, ranking in the 10th percentile in expected ERA (5.83) and the fifth percentile in expected batting average against.

So, there’s a chance that both offenses have a strong showing on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh is a top-10 team in OPS, batting average and runs scored this season while the Cardinals (12th in OPS) are more of a middle-of-the-pack squad on offense.

Still, Keller allowed six runs in his last start, and Liberatore has given up four or more runs in four outings in 2026.

I think this total is a touch too low, especially since these teams both have bullpen ERAs that are north of 4.00 in the 2026 season.

Pick: OVER 8 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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