Pirates vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 14

The New York Mets are aiming for a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night after pulling out back-to-back one-run wins to open the week.

New York is in first place in the NL East, and it has an impressive plus-69 run differential this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates are dead last in the NL Central and have dropped eight of their last 10 games.

Pittsburgh is just 5-16 on the road, and it could be in trouble against Clay Holmes (5-1, 2.74 ERA) on Wednesday. The Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter (4.36 ERA), who has led his team to a 3-5 record in his eight starts.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my game prediction for May 14.

Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Pirates +1.5 (+105)
Mets -1.5 (-125)

Moneyline

Pirates: +225
Mets: -278

Total

8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Pirates vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Bailey Falter (2-3. 4.36 ERA)
New York: Clay Holmes (5-1, 2.74 ERA)

Pirates vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 14
Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SNY, SportsNet PT
Pirates record: 14-29
Mets record: 28-15

Pirates vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Bailey Falter UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

This season, the Mets are No. 4 in MLB in strikeouts per game, going down just 7.56 times per contest.

That’s going to be an issue for Bailey Falter on Wednesday, as the lefty isn’t exactly a dominant strikeout pitcher, punching out just 31 batters in 43.1 innings of work this season.

Plus, the Mets are top five in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Falter has cleared 3.5 punchouts in half of his starts, but he ranks in the 25th percentile in strikeout percentage and 13th percentile in whiff percentage this season.

I’m fading him in a tough matchup on Wednesday.

Pirates vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Can the Mets complete the sweep on Wednesday night? I have a pick for this matchup that I shared in today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI Betting:

The Mets have a pair of one-run wins over the Pirates in this series, but Pittsburgh is still a dreadful 17-26 on the run line in 2025.

On Wednesday, I’m going to back the Mets to cover the run line with Clay Holmes (2.74 ERA) on the mound against Bailey Falter (4.36 ERA).

Pittsburgh has scored just four runs in this series, and it’s one of the worst offensive teams in MLB, ranking 29th in OPS, 27th in batting average and dead last in the league in runs scored.

While Falter hasn’t been awful this season, this is a tough matchup against a New York offense that is fifth in MLB in batting average against lefties and fourth in OPS. Plus, it’s hard to trust this Pittsburgh bullpen (4.32 ERA) to keep things in check once Falter exits.

Holmes, on the other hand, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his outings in 2025, leading New York to an impressive 7-1 record when he takes the mound.

I expect the Mets to build on that mark on Wednesday night.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.