Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 26

The San Diego Padres’ lead for the No. 3 wild card spot has dropped to just one game after back-to-back losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Now, the two teams square off on Wednesday afternoon with San Diego looking to keep the Arizona Diamondbacks at bay in the NL standings.

San Diego has scored just two runs in this series, and we’ve seen six total runs across two games with Paul Skenes throwing a gem for Pittsburgh on Tuesday night.

Oddsmakers have set the Padres as favorites at home in this series finale, as they’ll turn to right-hander Randy Vasquez (4.19 ERA) against Pittsburgh youngster Bubba Chandler (4.38 ERA).

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this battle between two teams in the wild card race in the National League.

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates +1.5 (-182)
Padres -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline

Pirates: +120
Padres: -129

Total

8 (Over -120/Under -101)

Pirates vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Bubba Chandler (6-8, 4.38 ERA)
San Diego: Randy Vasquez (9-6, 4.19 ERA)

Pirates vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Aug. 26
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/Padres.TV
Pirates record: 65-69
Padres record: 71-62

Pirates vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Bubba Chandler OVER 1.5 Walks (-163)

This season, Chandler ranks in just the 13th percentile in walk percentage, which is a major concern for him against this Padres offense.

San Diego hasn’t been elite on the offensive end, but it does rank eight in MLB in walk rate. So, Chandler may struggle to keep the Padres off the basepaths, as his control has been far from his best attribute in 2026.

ACross 25 outings, Chandler has allowed two or more walks 19 times, including four walks in his lone outing against the Padres. Overall, the righty has given up 66 walks in 125.1 innings of work.

I think this prop is a no-brainer on Wednesday, especially if Chandler is able to work into the sixth inning, which he’s done in two of four outings this month.

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Padres have hit the UNDER in 55.4 percent of their games in the 2026 season, and they remain in the bottom half of the league in several key offensive categories.

San Diego is 17th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), 21st in runs scored and 23rd in both batting average and OPS. So, the team’s struggles at the dish in this series aren’t new.

Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense has taken a massive step back over the last month, ranking 23rd in runs scored, 25th in batting average and 29th in OPS. This slide has dropped Pittsburgh out of the top five and down to 12th in wRC+ in 2026.

So, I don’t mind going UNDER in this matchup with the total all the way up at eight. After all we’ve seen just six runs in this series.

Vasquez has pitched a lot better since July 1 – despite some still awful advanced numbers – posting a 3.65 ERA in nine appearances.

Meanwhile, Chandler ranks in the 60th percentile in expected BAA and has a respectable 4.08 expected ERA. Even though the Pirates have struggled to win in his starts (10-15), I think this game will end up being another low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-101 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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