Pistons vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers began to claw their way back into their series with the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference semifinals on Saturday, winning 116-109.

Cleveland is favored to win Game 4 and even this series, as it improved to 5-0 at home in the playoffs in Game 3. The only issue? The Cavs are 0-5 on the road and don’t have home court in this series.

So, Game 4 is pivotal for Cleveland if it wants to escape the second round for the first time in the Mitchell era. In fact, the Cavs have not won more than one game in the second round since adding Mitchell before the 2022-23 season.

Meanwhile, the Pistons are looking to get back on track defensively after Cleveland shot over 58 percent from the field in Game 3. The No. 2 defense this postseason, Detroit is allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions, and it covered the spread in back-to-back games at home to open this series.

Now, the Pistons are 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4. Can they take a commanding 3-1 series lead?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Pistons +3.5 (-105)
Cavs -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Pistons: +140
Cavs: -166

Total

213.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Pistons vs. Cavaliers How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 11
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Detroit leads 2-1

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Injury Reports

Pistons Injury Report

Kevin Huerter – questionable

Cavaliers Injury Report

Caris LeVert – questionable

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bets

Cavs Best NBA Prop Bet

James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Harden is a fade candidate in Game 4:

Harden has played in 10 postseason games with the Cavs, and the results have been as wild as you’d expect.

He’s posted four games with 20 or more points (just two since Game 2 against the Toronto Raptors), and he’s also turned the ball over 50 times, averaging 5.0 per game. Harden scored 19 points in Game 3, shooting 8-for-14 from the field and 3-for-7 from deep.

While that seems like a step in the right direction, I’m fading Harden in Game 4 on Monday.

The Cavs star shot just 9-for-28 in the first two games in this series, and he only cleared this line in Game 1 because he got to the free-throw line nine times. In fact, two of the four games where Harden has scored 20 this postseason came with him taking nine or more shots from the charity stripe.

The Pistons have the No. 2 defensive rating in the playoffs this season (they were also No. 2 in defense in the regular season), and I expect them to keep Harden in check on Monday night.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

Cleveland may have won Game 3, but it took a great shooting performance (58.1 percent from the field) to get it done.

The Cavs’ offense has been shaky in this postseason, posting an offensive rating of 112.5 while ranking 15th out of 16 teams in turnover percentage. So, Detroit’s opportunistic defense certainly could lead it to a win in Game 4.

Not only did Cleveland shoot well in Game 3, but it scored 27 points off of 15 Detroit turnovers. Will that happen again? I’m not sold on it.

The Pistons are an NBA-best 9-2 against the spread as road underdogs this season while the Cavs have covered in just 19 of 43 games as home favorites.

This series could end up going the distance, but the Pistons have executed pretty well down the stretch, leading to two wins. I’m buying them as 3.5-point dogs in Game 4 in what could be a one-possession game.

Pick: Pistons +3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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