Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Expect More of the Same in Pittsburgh)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have begged a fascinating question of football fans over the past decade. Is it good enough to be a team that's always going to be a borderline playoff team but one that's never going to be a true contender? Is it worth rebuilding to try to become a top team if it means having to live through a few seasons of losing football?

The Steelers have had three straight 10-7 seasons and haven't had a single losing year under head coach Mike Tomlin. The bad side of that is they haven't been looked at as a contender in a decade, going 0-6 in their last six recent postseason appearances.

Management finally had enough of "good but not great", moving on from Mike Tomlin and bringing in former Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.

Is the change in coaching enough to make the Steelers take the next step? Unfortunately, the betting market doesn't seem to think so.

2026 Pittsburgh Steelers Win Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 8.5 Wins (+110)
UNDER 8.5 Wins (-130)

The Steelers' win total is set at 8.5, with the UNDER juiced to -130. That means there's a 56.52% implied probability that the Steelers will have their first losing season since 2003.

The biggest question for the Steelers isn't McCarthy; it's Aaron Rodgers, who has decided to come back for one more NFL season at 42 years old. He wasn't a terrible starter for the Steelers last season, but he's far from the Rodgers of old. He averaged just 207.6 passing yards per game, for a rating of 94.8. It would be surprising for him to improve this season, unless it turns out the coaching staff was the primary issue in Pittsburgh. The good news is Rodgers will be comfortable playing under McCarthy, his former coach who he won a Super Bowl with in 2010-2011.

To make matters more difficult for the Steelers, they have to play a first-place schedule after capturing the AFC North last season. They also have the 17th-easiest schedule in the NFL based on their opponent's projected win totals, far tougher than their three divisional opponents. The Bengals have the second-easiest, the Ravens have the fifth-easiest, and the Browns have the sixth-easiest.

The rest of the Steelers roster is a lot of "good but not great" players. I can't put my faith behind this team until they get a young, competent quarterback and get younger on defense. I think we're going to see a season from Pittsburgh that's going to finally convince management to do a full rebuild. I'll take the UNDER on their win total.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 Wins (-130) via DraftKings

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google