The Players Championship Prop Bets: An Intriguing Longshot on Hideki Matsuyama

There are more ways to bet on the Players Championship this week than picking who is going to win the whole thing. Sometimes, some of the best edges you can find from a betting perspective are in the prop market.

I have three props locked in for this week's event, including a fun one to watch for the island green and a longshot bet on Hideki Matsuyama.

The Players Championship prop bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 43.5 Balls in the Water on 17th Hole (+164)
Top Nordic: Alex Noren (+485)
Hideki Matsuyama to Record a Hole in One (+6200)

OVER 43.5 Balls in the water on 17th hole (+164)

I think this prop is completely mispriced. There has been an average of 48.54 water balls on the 17th hole since 2003, well above the set total of 43.5 for this week's edition of the event. The low number is likely due to there being a lower-than-average amount of shots ending up in the water the past two years. There were only 38 water balls last year, and 39 in 2024, but just because we've had back-to-back years of there being fewer than 40 balls in the water, doesn't mean we won't see 44+ this week.

Let's trust the history and bet the OVER 43.5 balls in the water at +164.

Top Nordic: Alex Noren (+485)

The top two golfers on the odds list to finish with the best score amongst Nordic athetes is Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland, but I trust neither of them this week. Aberg's driving accuracy isn't accurate enough off the tee to trust at TPC Sawgrass, and Viktor Hovland's nightmarish chipping is going to cause him plenty of issues at this course.

Instead, I'm going to back the Swede, Alex Noren. He's extremly accurate both off the tee and with his approach play. He may not win this week, but if he plays as well as he as of late, I predict he'll finish inside the top 20, which could be enough to be the top Nordic finisher.

Hideki Matsuyama to record a hole in one (+6200)

I admit, this is a bit of a wild bet. Not only am I predicting that there will be a hole in one, but I'm calling my shot and saying it's going to be Hideki Matsuayama that's going to do it. His approach play has been fantastic this season, and he leads all golfers in par-3 performance in 2026. Let's see if he can pull it off at 62 to 1.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!