Rangers vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, May 15

The Texas Rangers have won back-to-back games to get to one game under .500 in the 2026 season, and their run differential is even heading into Friday’s matchup with the Houston Astros.

Houston is a slight underdog at home in this game, as it remains well under .500 this season (17-28) due to some poor pitching. Houston has a 5.59 ERA as a team – the worst in MLB this season.

However, on Friday, the Astros will turn to righty Spencer Arrighetti (1.88 ERA) who has led them to a win in four of his five starts in 2026. He’ll take on Texas right-hander Jack Leiter (4.85 ERA), who is coming off a scoreless outing against the Chicago White Sox where he walked five batters and failed to get through five innings.

Can Texas get back to .500 in his ninth start of the season?

I’m eyeing a player prop and a prediction for this matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the latest odds.

Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rangers -1.5 (+149)
Astros +1.5 (-181)

Moneyline

Rangers: -112
Astros: -108

Total

8.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Rangers vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

Texas: Jack Leiter (1-3, 4.85 ERA)
Houston: Spencer Arrighetti (4-1, 1.88 ERA)

Rangers vs. Astros How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 15
Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Daikin Park
How to Watch (TV): Space City Home Network, CW33, MLB.TV
Rangers record: 21-22
Astros record: 17-28

Rangers vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+243)

Earlier today, I shared in Daily Dinger – SI Betting’s best home run picks – why Alvarez remains an elite home run pick each night:

This season, Alvarez has been one of the best hitters in MLB, posting a .321 batting average, a 1.072 OPS and 14 homers. Alvarez is hitting .321 with eight homers against right-handed pitching, making him a prime target against Texas Rangers righty Jack Leiter.

In 2026, Leiter has a 4.85 ERA and has allowed seven home runs in eight starts, allowing four homers in his last three outings.

Alvarez is hitting .333 with a pair of homers over the last week, and he’s one of the safest home run bets in MLB since he’s been such a consistent bat in the 2026 season.

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

There’s a bit of a concern for Arrighetti despite his 1.88 ERA, as he ranks in the 14th percentile in expected ERA (5.35) and the 34th percentile in expected batting average against. However, I’m not sold on this Texas offense taking advantage of that.

Texas ranks 26th in MLB in OPS and 27th in runs scored this season, and it’s just 3-5 when Leiter is on the mound. The young righty has a better expected ERA than Arrighetti (4.61), but he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts.

There’s been just one start this season where Arrighetti has given up more than one earned run.

I can’t trust Houston beyond the first five innings – even at home – since it has the worst bullpen in MLB.

The Astros’ pen has a 5.86 ERA in the 2026 season, allowing a league-high 34 home runs in the process.

There’s a chance Arrighetti is due for some regression, but I think he can get through the first five frames with Houston on top. The Astros have hit well in 2026, ranking fourth in MLB in OPS and ninth in runs scored.

Pick: Houston Astros First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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