Raptors vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5

Home teams have dominated this first-round series between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers, going 4-0 after the Raptors pulled out a win in a rockfight on Sunday.

Cleveland scored just 89 points in a four-point loss, struggling with execution down the stretch. Scottie Barnes hit a ton of clutch free throws for the Raptors, who have a real chance to pull off an upset in this first-round series.

The Cavs have seen their NBA Finals odds dip from +1400 to +1800 after their Game 4 loss, but oddsmakers have them heavily favored at home in Game 5. Cleveland won Game 1 by 13 points and Game 2 by 10 points, so it should have confidence at Rocket Arena on Wednesday.

If Toronto wants to pull off an upset, Brandon Ingram (33.9 percent from the field this postseason) has to be more of a threat on offense, as he has just one game with 20 or more points and was held to six or fewer made field goals in each of the first four games of this series.

Playoff shortcomings have been the theme of Donovan Mitchell’s tenure in Cleveland, even if they aren’t all his fault. Now, he and James Harden are under pressure to deliver in a pivotal Game 5 that could decide the series. In NBA history, teams that won Game 5 after being tied 2-2 got on to win the series over 80 percent of the time.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop and a prediction for Game 5 on April 29.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Raptors +8.5 (-105)
Cavs -8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Raptors: +300
Cavs: -380

Total

215.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Raptors vs. Cavaliers How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 29
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Series: Tied 2-2

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Injury Reports

Raptors Injury Report

Immanuel Quickley -- out

Cavs Injury Report

None to report

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bets

Raptors Best NBA Prop Bet

Scottie Barnes OVER 19.5 Points (-119)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Barnes is the most trustworthy Raptor as a scorer in this series:

Raptors star Scottie Barnes has stepped up in a big way with Brandon Ingram struggling from the field (33.9 percent) in this series, scoring 21 or more points in every game.

Barnes even had 23 points in Game 4 when the Raptors scored just 93 points in a four-point win.

The Cavs’ defense has been pretty shaky this season, ranking 15th in defensive rating during the regular season and 12th in defensive rating out of the 16 playoff teams after Game 4. So, Barnes has been able to exploit some mismatches, especially since Cleveland lacks an elite wing defender to slow him down.

The former lottery pick is averaging 25.8 points on 16.3 shots and 9.3 free throws per game in this series. Barnes has shot the ball extremely well (52.3 percent from the field, 46.7 percent from 3), and he should remain the focal point of the Toronto offense on Wednesday.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

Cleveland won and covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2 as a home favorite, but after Toronto evened the series at home, I’m not willing to lay this many points with the Cavs.

Not only has Cleveland struggled on the defensive end – 12th amongst playoff teams in defensive rating – but it hasn’t been great against the number all season long.

The Cavs are just 17-23 against the spread as home favorites (even after covering in Games 1 and 2), and they have struggled a bit on offense when the Raptors go to their smaller groups with Collin Murray-Boyles as the center.

I don’t think Toronto has enough offensive firepower to win this game (I obviously could be wrong), though Brandon Ingram is due to get something going after a poor first four games of the series.

Ultimately, I think this line should be closer to Cavs -5.5 or -6.5, so I’ll take a few extra points in Game 5.

Pick: Raptors +8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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