Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for LeBron James, Scottie Barnes, Magic-Pistons)

Another day of playoff basketball brings plenty of opportunity, as both the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic have a chance to clinch a spot in the second round of the playoffs.

Los Angeles holds a 3-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets – even though it was a massive underdog before the series – while the Magic are up 3-1 on the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons.

Only the Lakers are favored in Game 5 on Wednesday, which features three playoff games with a ton at stake:

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons (ORL leads 3-1)
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Tied 2-2)
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (LAL leads 3-1)

Only 13 times in NBA history has a team come back from a 3-1 series deficit to win (4.4 percent of the time), so the Rockets and Pistons have their work cut out for them. Houston fell behind 3-0 against the Lakers, so it would make history if it came back to eventually win the series.

On Wednesday, Detroit and Cleveland are heavily favored while the Lakers are two-possession favorites with Austin Reaves (oblique) potentially returning to the lineup.

As always, there are a few bets that I’m placing for the night’s action, including a player prop for none other than LeBron James.

Let’s dive into the breakdown for each play as two more teams look to clinch a conference semifinals spot this postseason.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 274-232 (+0.72 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1565-1470-27 (+33.87 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Orlando Magic +9.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons
Scottie Barnes OVER 19.5 Points (-119)
LeBron James OVER 7.5 Assists (-136)

Orlando Magic +9.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons

Orlando has simply outplayed the Pistons in the first four games of this series, holding Detroit to an NBA-worst offensive rating in the playoffs while covering the spread in three of four games.

Even with Franz Wagner (calf) up in the air for Game 5, the Magic still have Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs to rely on for offensive prediction. That group has been a major reason why Orlando has found it much easier to score than the Pistons, who lack any shot creation outside of Cade Cunningham.

Detroit is averaging just 8.3 made 3-pointers per game in the playoffs and is shooting 27.5 percent from beyond the arc. On top of that, the Pistons have scored under 100 points in two of the four games in this series. So, I don’t feel comfortable laying 9.5 points with them – even at home.

Orlando already pulled off a road upset in this series, and it’s worth noting that Detroit is just 18-19 against the spread when favored at home in the 2025-26 season.

Scottie Barnes OVER 19.5 Points (-119)

Raptors star Scottie Barnes has stepped up in a big way with Brandon Ingram struggling from the field (33.9 percent) in this series, scoring 21 or more points in every game.

Barnes even had 23 points in Game 4 when the Raptors scored just 93 points in a four-point win.

The Cavs’ defense has been pretty shaky this season, ranking 15th in defensive rating during the regular season and 12th in defensive rating out of the 16 playoff teams after Game 4. So, Barnes has been able to exploit some mismatches, especially since Cleveland lacks an elite wing defender to slow him down.

The former lottery pick is averaging 25.8 points on 16.3 shots and 9.3 free throws per game in this series. Barnes has shot the ball extremely well (52.3 percent from the field, 46.7 percent from 3), and he should remain the focal point of the Toronto offense on Wednesday.

LeBron James OVER 7.5 Assists (-136)

James is coming off his worst game of the series in Game 4, finishing with just 10 points (on nine shots) while turning the ball over eight times.

Still, LeBron is averaging 8.8 assists per game (on 13.5 potential assists), clearing this number in Games 1 and 4. Now, I think James could have an even bigger game as a passer in Game 5 if Austin Reaves returns and takes some of the pressure off the 41-year-old on offense.

Houston’s defensive scheme has been tailored to slow James down, but Reaves would give the Lakers an elite on-ball scorer to take some pressure off the four-time champion.

James has put together several games with eight or more dimes without Luka Doncic in the lineup this season, and I believe he’s undervalued at this number in Game 5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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