Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Round of 16

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are not only battling it out for the La Liga title this season, but they will also be facing each other in the Round of 16 of the Champions League. This will be the sixth time the teams will square off since the start of 2024. Both teams have won once in those five games and scored a total of ten goals. The last three matchups have been 1-1 draws, including the Week 23 matchup in La Liga on February 8.

This crucial Champions League matchup will be as tightly contested as the recent clashes between the two sides.

Ever since Diego Simeone took over as Atletico’s manager in 2011, he has faced Real Madrid four times in the elimination rounds of the Champions League. Two of those were in the Final. He wasn’t able to defeat his intercity rivals on any of those occasions.

Simeone also hasn’t made it to the semifinals since losing to Real Madrid in 2017. It has been a difficult last couple of years for Atletico but now they have the perfect opportunity to finally get one over their rivals.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, is looking for their third Champions League title in the last four seasons, and their seventh in 12.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side, however, hasn’t been as dominant as they have been in recent years. They have already suffered three defeats in La Liga, lost to Barcelona twice in blowout fashion, and were a no-show against the likes of Milan and Liverpool in the Champions League.

Yet, they have historically been a different beast in the Champions League. Will they elevate their game once again or will Simeone finally slay the dragon?

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Qualify:

Real Madrid: -154
Atletico Madrid: +126

Moneyline:

Real Madrid: -120
Draw: +270
Atletico Madrid: +330

Total Goals:

Over 2.5: -116
Under 2.5: -106

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -134
No: +104

Double Chance:

Atletico Madrid or Draw: -110

Half-Time Result:

Real Madrid: +135
Draw: +115
Atletico Madrid: +370

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 4, 2025
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, Vix, Fubo

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction and Pick

Real Madrid lost to Betis in La Liga over the weekend, dropping to third place in the standings. They failed to produce enough chances, finishing the game with 0.92 expected goals on nine shots. Jude Bellingham and Federico Valverde’s absence proved to be too large to overcome in the midfield.

Unfortunately for the reigning champions, Bellingham will miss Tuesday’s game and Valverde is doubtful to play. Luka Modric, after playing 90 minutes against Betis, will likely not start against Atletico Madrid. Ancelotti will likely utilize a midfield trio of Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Brahim Diaz. That is not a creative enough group, especially against a compact Diego Simeone defense.

Atletico Madrid came away with a crucial 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao on Saturday to keep their title chase alive right behind league leaders Barcelona. They continue to utilize a disciplined 4-4-2 formation, defending well and relying on Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez’s production offensively. Griezmann has 16 goals and seven assists in 32 starts this season and Alvarez is already up to 21 goals and five assists in 31 starts. Not too many duos have been more impactful in Europe this season.

At the same time, Simeone’s side is still not the most dangerous team in possession. Therefore, they allow their opponents to control possession. In the previous game between the two sides, Real Madrid had 60% possession. That should continue in the first leg of this matchup.

Having the ball, however, isn’t necessarily a good thing against Atletico. Few teams are more experienced or competent than Atletico when it comes to absorbing pressure and defending deep.

With Vinicius Jr. and Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid likes to exploit spaces and get behind the defense. That will be hard to do against a Simeone side. They will especially miss Bellingham’s ability to play between the lines.

In Santiago Bernabeu, Atletico will be more than happy to come away with a draw. They are not going to push for a win in the first leg, making spaces and therefore opportunities hard to come by for Real Madrid. This could create a low-scoring affair. Under 2.5 goals certainly makes plenty of sense, but there is real value in a draw. 0-0 or 1-1 seems like a probable outcome.

Pick: Draw (+270 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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