Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, May 4

The Boston Red Sox remain in last place in the AL East heading into Monday night’s matchup with the Detroit Tigers, who are surging in the standings.

Detroit is now back in first in the AL Central and has a plus-18 run differential this season. The Tigers are heavily favored in Monday’s series opener with Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal on the mound.

Skubal has an impressive 2.70 ERA in the 2026 season, yet the Tigers are just 4-3 in his seven starts.

Boston will counter with young lefty Payton Tolle (3.38 ERA), who has pitched pretty well despite Boston losing both of his outings this season.

I’m eyeing a player prop and a side for Monday’s matchup, as the Sox look to snap a losing streak after dropping back-to-back games to Houston over the weekend.

Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Red Sox +1.5 (-136)
Tigers -1.5 (+113)

Moneyline

Red Sox: +163
Tigers: -199

Total

7 (Over -105/Under -115)

Red Sox vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

Boston: Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA)
Detroit: Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Tigers How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 4
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Comerica Park
How to Watch (TV): NESN, Tigers.TV
Red Sox record: 13-21
Tigers record: 18-17

Red Sox vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

Tarik Skubal OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+130)

Skubal has pitched at least six innings in six of his seven starts this season, giving him a really solid floor heading into Monday’s matchup.

Boston has one of the worst offenses in MLB this season, ranking 28th in OPS, 27th in runs scored and 21st in batting average. So, against a two-time Cy Young award winner, I don’t see the Sox getting on the board early.

While Skubal’s pitch count has been down – he has yet to throw 100 pitches in a start – he has thrown 90 or more in four of his last five outings. I think he’s worth a look at +130 since he went seven innings in just 91 pitches in his last start.

Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best bets column why the Tigers are the bet with Skubal on the mound:

Tarik Skubal and the Tigers are heavily favored at home against a Boston team that is just 7-11 on the road and in last place in the AL East this season.

Detroit hasn’t been as dominant in Skubal’s outings as years past, going 4-3 this season, but it has turned things around after a slow start to get into first in the AL Central while sporting a plus-18 run differential.

The Tigers are plus money on the run line on Monday night, and I’m going to take them to cover that against Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle. The youngster has pitched well for Boston this season (3.38 ERA in two starts), but Boston has lost both of those games by two or more runs.

I simply can’t trust this Boston offense, which is 28th in OPS, 27th in runs scored and 21st in batting average against a pitcher as dominant as Skubal.

This season, the reigning Cy Young award winner has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.16 FIP, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his seven outings. He should be able to slow down this Boston attack on Monday night.

Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+113 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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