Road to Super Bowl 59: Chiefs vs. Eagles Best Bets

It has been a long NFL season. From betting on all 272 regular season games to placing multiple wagers on each postseason matchup, we have just one game left to bet on before the long offseason.

There are countless bets and picks out there so to try to make things simple ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, I'm going to give you my top picks all in one article. My spread pick, total bet, favorite player prop for each team, and best touchdown wagers are listed below.

Let's dive into it.

Super Bowl 59 Best Bets

• Chiefs -110 vs. Eagles via FanDuel
• UNDER 48.5 (-110) via FanDuel
• JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 1.5 Receptions (-110) via BetMGM
• Jalen Hurts OVER 27.5 Pass Attempts (-102) via DraftKings
• DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250) via DraftKings
• Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (+320) via FanDuel

Chiefs -110 vs. Eagles

If you look at this matchup purely from an analytics perspective, you're going to want to the Eagles as underdogs. They outrank the Chiefs in virtually every single metric. Let's take a look at some of them below:

Areas the Eagles outrank the Chiefs: Net Yards per Play, Points per Play, Opponent Points per Play, EPA per Play, Opponent EPA per Play, Opponent Success Rate, Red Zone TD%, Opponent Red Zone TD%, Opponent Third Down Conversion%, and Average Turnover Differential.

Areas the Chiefs outrank the Eagles: Success Rate, Third Down Conversion%.

When it comes to the stylistic matchup, Philadelphia fans should be happy to find out the Chiefs defense ranks 15th in opponent rush EPA and ninth in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.2 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense ranks second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.5 yards per throw.

Now that I have all of that out of the way, I'm still going to bet the Chiefs. Kansas City has proven time and time again, year after year, that even if their opponent is the better team from an "analytics" perspective, but it doesn't matter. Patrick Mahomes has champion DNA, Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, and Steve Spagnuolo may be the best defensive coordinator of all time.

Kansas City continuously plays its best football in the playoffs and that starts with Mahomes, who has now recorded seven playoff starts where he averaged an EPA of 0.5 or better, which is more than double the amount than any other QB in NFL history.

I have bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs way more than I should have in the past few years. Thankfully, I have finally seen the light. A switch gets flipped for this team when they're in the postseason and I see no reason why that won't continue in New Orleans.

UNDER 48.5 (-110)

The total opened at 48.5 but was quickly bet up to 49.5. I'm going to go against the movement and take the UNDER, despite the last two Chiefs Super Bowl wins hitting the OVER.

I would make the argument the strength of both teams is their defenses. Remember the Chiefs hadn't scored over 30 points in a game this season until the AFC Championship against the Bills. Their success this year has largely been due to Steve Spagnuolo's defense and Patrick Mahomes making a big play when he needs to.

Then there's the Eagles defense which has a case to be argued that they're the best defense in the league, ranking third in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate.

If we stick to the obvious, the Eagles allowed the fewest points per game at 17.9 while the Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points at 19.4. To me, that doesn't sound like a recipe for an offensive shootout of a game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 1.5 Receptions (-110)

JuJu Smith-Schister played 41% of offensive snaps against the Texans and then 58% of snaps against the Bills, clearly taking over as the No. 3 receiver or the Chiefs. JuJu also hauled in two key passes, resulting in 60 yards through the air in the AFC Championship. If he plays that big of a role in the Kansas City game plan, he's a solid bet to haul in at least two receptions on Super Bowl Sunday.

Jalen Hurts OVER 27.5 Pass Attempts (-102)

The Eagles would love it if they were able to keep the ball on the ground all game and cruise to victory on the legs of Saquon Barkley, but I don't think that's going to happen. Steve Spagnuolo is going to draw up a defensive scheme to slow down Barkley and force the Eagles to try to win the game through the air, something they've struggled to do at times this season. Instead of betting on Hurts passing yards or completions, I believe the best way to bet on the Eagles quarterback is to take the OVER on his attempts.

DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250)

Despite A.J. Brown having much shorter odds to score a touchdown, DeVonta Smith actually had more receiving touchdowns than him in the regular season with eight. He also hauled in one more reception with 68 compared to Brown's 67. That leads me to believe there's some value on the Eagles' No. 2 receiver to find the end zone.

Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (+320)

Kareem Hunt will be the primary running back for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but the difference in carries between these two running backs isn't enough to justify the difference in odds. Pacheco may still be put in the game in short-yardage and goalline situations, especially if Kansas City holds a lead late in the game. He's worth a bet at north of 3-1 odds.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!