Road to the Final Four: March Madness Predictions, Picks for National Championship

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, I have been betting on a side or total in every single game, and now here we are in the National Championship. 66 bets down, one to go.

The Michigan Wolverines are 7-point favorites to win their second National Championship in school history, while the UConn Huskies are looking to win their third National Championship in four years.

Let's dive into my final pick for this year's Road to the Final Four.

National Championship Best Bet

UConn +7 (-110) via Caesars

UConn vs. Michigan Prediction

The UConn Huskies and Michigan Wolverines are set to face off in tonight's National Championship Game. The lookahead line for this matchup last week had Michigan set as a 6.5-point favorite, but after the Final Four games, that line has moved to Michigan -7.

Let's try not to let recency bias take over. Yes, Michigan has looked ultra-impressive in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't completely flawless, and UConn is an elite team in its own right.

The Wolverines won the turnover battle against Arizona in the semifinal, but that has been an issue for them for most of the season, leading them to rank just 163rd in effective possession ratio and 220th in extra scoring chances per game (-0.7). UConn outranks them in both areas, especially extra scoring chances per game, where they rank 40th, averaging +2.9 per game.

Michigan's defense is its strong point, but let's not underestimate the Huskies' ability on that side of the court. UConn ranks 15th in defensive efficiency and eighth in defensive rating.

UConn may not have the skill and talent to win this game, but with Dan Hurley's experience leading them, I at least expect them to give Michigan a fight. I won't hesitate to take the points with the Huskies in their third National Championship appearance in four years.

Pick: UConn +7 (-110)

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