Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Knicks-76ers, Spurs-Timberwolves on Friday

Two huge Game 3 matchups take place in the conference semifinals on Friday night, as the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves look to take care of business at home.

Philly is down 2-0 to the Knicks in the second round, and it didn’t have Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 3) in Game 2 on Wednesday night. The Knicks are banged up as well, with OG Anunoby (hamstring) exiting late in Game 2. There’s an old saying that a series doesn’t begin until a road team wins a game, but a New York win would all but end this matchup since no team has come back from a 3-0 deficit.

Still, the Sixers are small favorites in Game 3.

In the Western Conference, Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are favored on the road after a 38-point win in Game 2 to even their series with Minnesota. The Wolves are a perfect 3-0 at home in the playoffs, but can they take care of business after a brutal offensive showing (95 points, 22 turnovers) in Game 2?

This postseason, I’m challenging myself to place at least one bet on every playoff game through the NBA Finals. The “Road to the NBA Finals” has some pretty simple rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

On Friday night, I’m eyeing two player props that I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – as my favorite bets for tonight’s action:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-124)

I’ve bet on Tyrese Maxey’s point total in the first two games of this series (and Game 7 against Boston), and I’m not going to stray from it in Game 3.

Even with Embiid questionable, Maxey should hold a major role in the offense after he took 23 shots and scored 26 points in Game 2. Now, with Anunoby banged up, the Knicks have to shake up their defense against Philly, which could give Maxey a few more favorable matchups in Game 3.

All season long, Maxey has given the Knicks issues, and he did in the playoffs in 2024. Two seasons ago, Maxey torched the Knicks in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more points in three games, including matchups with 33, 35 and 46 points. He also thrived against New York in the regular season in the 2025-26 campaign, scoring 30, 36, 22 and 32 points in four meetings.

Maxey closed out the Boston series with 25, 30 and 30 points, and he’s now cleared this total in four of his last five games. I don’t read too much into Game 1, as Nick Nurse waved the white flag early with Philly down big.

Since Game 3 is a must-win for the Sixers, I expect a heavy workload for Maxey, who is coming off a regular season where he averaged 28.3 points per game.

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-172)

Wembanyama has not scored the ball at a high level in the conference semifinals (30 points in two games), but it hasn't impacted his rebounding numbers.

The superstar center has 15 rebounds in each of his two games against the Wolves, and he’s picked up at least 12 boards in four playoff games in a row since he returned from the concussion he suffered in Game 2 of the first round.

Wembanayam is averaging over 20 rebound chances per game in his last three games, giving him a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

I expect him to control the glass on Friday, even though the Wolves are No. 2 amongst playoff teams in rebound percentage.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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